The Mazeika Report
January 17, 2009
go to blog link to http://mazeikabloginternationalnews.blogspot.com/ for archival reports for the months of December, November, October, September, August, July and June, 2008Pass this link on to other readers! Breaking stories.....your comments are welcome.... Place this "blog link" into your computer favorites for easy access. =======================================================
Visit our interactive website and new featured listings....at http://www.ocrelocate.com/ Ocean to Mountains Real Estate for Southern California, Orange County, & San Diego Tony & Danute Mazeika...... 949 929-9051 direct
Celebrating 21 successful years and more than 500 successful real estate transactions...
We are entering the Golden Age of Real Estate investment purchase....Don't miss incredible market opportunities....... Prices are at Year 2002 level... December 2008 home sales up significantly over 2007 ...
You may qualify for a credit on closing costs and savings on escrow fees...Ask us how...... Don't delay..call us today! 949 929-9051
go to blog link to http://mazeikabloginternationalnews.blogspot.com/ for archival reports for the months of December, November, October, September, August, July and June, 2008Pass this link on to other readers! Breaking stories.....your comments are welcome.... Place this "blog link" into your computer favorites for easy access. =======================================================
Visit our interactive website and new featured listings....at http://www.ocrelocate.com/ Ocean to Mountains Real Estate for Southern California, Orange County, & San Diego Tony & Danute Mazeika...... 949 929-9051 direct
Celebrating 21 successful years and more than 500 successful real estate transactions...
We are entering the Golden Age of Real Estate investment purchase....Don't miss incredible market opportunities....... Prices are at Year 2002 level... December 2008 home sales up significantly over 2007 ...
You may qualify for a credit on closing costs and savings on escrow fees...Ask us how...... Don't delay..call us today! 949 929-9051
================================================================
Please support this unique blog.....Buy your ....Books, Dvds, and CDs on our special link access to Amazon.Com Tony & Danute =================================================================
Breaking news & commentary ....click on active links for multiple photos!
==================================================
America has come a long way
Mari-Ann Kelam, Freedom Activist
Tallinn, Estonia
In a few short days, a black man will move from his private residence into a much larger and more expensive one owned not by him but by the taxpayers. A vast lawn, perimeter fence and many well-trained security specialists will insulate him from the rest of us, but the mere fact that this man will live there should make us all stop and count our blessings — because it proves we live in a nation where anything is possible.
Many believed this day would never come. Most of us hoped and prayed that it would, but few of us actually believed we would live to see it. Racism is an ugly thing in all of its forms and there is little doubt that if this man had moved there 15 years ago, there would have been a great outcry — possibly even rioting in the streets. Today, we can all be both grateful and proud that no such mayhem will take place when this man takes up residency in this house.
This man, moving into this house at this time in our nation's history is much more than a simple change of addresses for him — it is proof of a change in our attitude as a nation. It is an amends of sorts — the righting of a great wrong. It is a symbol of our growth, and of our willingness to judge a man, not by the color of his skin but by the content of his character.
There can be little doubt now that the vast majority of us truly believe this man has earned both his place in history and his new address. His time in this house will not be easy — it will be fraught with danger and he will face many challenges. We're sure there will be many times when he asks himself how in the world he ended up here, and, like all who have gone before him, the experience will age him greatly. But in every way a man can, he asked for this. His whole life for the past fifteen years appears to have been inexorably leading this man toward this house. It is highly probable that in the past, despite all of his actions, racism would have kept this man out of this house. Today, we thank the Lord above that we are Americans and live in a nation where wrongs are righted, where justice matters and where truly anything is possible. A nation where O.J. Simpson is finally going to jail.
What, you thought this was about Obama?
Here is an alternative email in case my regular one does not work: mariann.kelam@gmail.com
==========================================
Strategic Collapse at the Army War College
Posted By Patrick Poole On January 14, 2009 @ 12:00 am In . Positioning, Israel, Middle East, Politics, US News, World News 139 Comments
If you know your enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
This famous maxim by the ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu is familiar to every student of military science and strategy. His counsel is simple: understand your enemy, understand yourself. Nearly eight years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, however, important segments of our military infrastructure dedicated to training and educating the next generation of military leaders have woefully failed to heed Sun Tzu’s advice. Two recent blog posts by Washington Post military correspondent Tom Ricks related to policies and publications by the U.S. Army War College give evidence to this strategic collapse in the War on Terror.
Two weeks ago, Ricks [1] reported on a new [2] publication by Army War College research professor Sherifa Zuhur on Hamas and Israel that informs readers that Hamas has been misunderstood due to the misreporting by “Israeli and Western sources that villainize the group.” Zuhur concludes that Hamas isn’t so bad after all, so we all just need to get along and embrace the terrorist group through negotiations — a view apparently endorsed by the Army War College when it published her defense of Hamas.
A second post last week, “[3] Fiasco at the Army War College: The Sequel,” records an exchange between Ricks and defense expert and author [4] Mark Perry. Assessing the academic state of affairs at the War College, Perry informed Ricks:
It’s worse than you think. They have curtailed the curriculum so that their students are not exposed to radical Islam. Akin to denying students access to Marx during the Cold War.
This is hardly the first complaint that the military has failed to investigate and assess the strategic writings related to radical Islam and Islamic war doctrine. William Gawthrop, former head of the Joint Terrorism Task Force of the Defense Department’s Counterintelligence Field Activity, says in a military intelligence journal article that:
As late as early 2006, the senior service colleges of the Department of Defense had not incorporated into their curriculum a systematic study of Muhammad as a military or political leader. As a consequence, we still do not have an in-depth understanding of the war-fighting doctrine laid down by Muhammad, how it might be applied today by an increasing number of Islamic groups, or how it might be countered. (”The Sources and Patterns of Terrorism in Islamic Law,” The Vanguard: Journal of the Military Intelligence Corps Association, 11:4 [Fall 2006], p. 10)
One effort to remedy this strategic deficiency identified by Gawthrop was undertaken by Joint Chiefs of Staff analyst Stephen Coughlin, who published his finding in his master’s thesis at the National Defense Intelligence University, [5] “To Our Great Detriment”: Ignoring What Extremists Say About Jihad. In his thesis, Coughlin examines texts from multiple schools of Islamic jurisprudence to evaluate the respective traditions on jihad and their contemporary use by Islamic terrorists, concluding that failing to investigate these sources has left our military “disarmed in the war of ideas.”
Coughlin’s thesis had barely seen the light of day before he was [6] sacked from his position with the Joint Chiefs, having running afoul of another Pentagon official, Hesham Islam, a top-ranked Muslim advisor to Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England, who took issue with Coughlin’s academic analysis.
Another vocal critic identifying this wide gap in our military’s strategic studies is Army LTC Joseph Myers. He has recently voiced his concerns in an [7] interview with Congressional Quarterly and in a [8] review article published in the Army War College journal Parameters, where he argues that understanding the Islamic doctrine of war is a basic necessity for our military leadership:
To understand war, one has to study its philosophy, the grammar and logic of your opponent. Only then are you approaching strategic comprehension. To understand the war against Islamist terrorism one must begin to understand the Islamic way of war, its philosophy and doctrine, the meanings of jihad in Islam — and one needs to understand that those meanings are highly varied and utilitarian depending on the source.
In an [9] assessment published last May, Myers adds that the failure to study the strategy of jihadists leaves our own military strategy aimless and increases our long-term vulnerability to further terrorist attacks:
National security strategy is policy and policy implies a theory — a theory for action. To date we have no concrete theory of action because we have no fully articulated global threat model. We are seven years into a global war with armed combat and many dead and wounded, and yet still lack a common analytic paradigm to describe and model the enemy. It is a stunning failure to propel the country to war without a fully elaborated threat model that clarifies and specifies the enemy and makes clear our true objectives.
The lack of a threat model and a theory for action explains our schizophrenia, our failures, and homeland security shortcomings.
Understanding the enemy — “the threat,” his threat doctrine and the authoritative statements, sources, and philosophy undergirding that doctrine — is a primary duty. That is the first step in developing a threat model. It is the vital step in the [10] Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield process, to template enemy doctrine by laying it over the terrain: the physical, human, and cultural terrain to understand its manifestations in reality. These are the first relevant questions to be answered for U.S. national security analysis.
This intellectual and strategic groundwork for the “long war” against Islamic terrorism will never be accomplished as long as our senior service schools and military academies continue to neglect this vital area of strategic study. Regardless of what one might think about the relation between Islamic theology and jihadist justifications for terror, it is a fact that they believe they are operating in accordance with Islamic tradition. Islamic war doctrine ought to be studied on that basis alone.
But returning to Sun Tzu’s maxim, perhaps the root of our military’s strategic schizophrenia is not so much about our refusal to understand our enemies as much as it is a failure to understand ourselves. As a nation, we no longer have a sense of who we are, what we believe, or even why we fight. At the height of World War II, would a faculty member at the Army War College have even considered attempting to defend Nazi fascism or Japanese imperialism, as War College professor Sherifa Zuhur has now done with Hamas? That is a fitting testimony of how far we are from both aspects of Sun Tzu’s counsel.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/strategic-collapse-at-the-army-war-college/
Studying the Islamic Way of War
At the inaugural conference for the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa (ASMEA) back in April, presenter LTC Joseph Myers made an interesting point that deserves further elaboration. Though military studies have traditionally valued and absorbed the texts of classical war doctrine — such as Clausewitz's On War, Sun Tsu's The Art of War, even the exploits of Alexander the Great as recorded in Arrian and Plutarch — Islamic war doctrine, which is just as if not more textually grounded, is totally ignored.
Full report: http://www.meforum.org/article/2050
------------------------------------------------------------
Reader comments:
There is a strategic collapse not only at the Army War College, but at the USA itself! But, have we not voted for it?
AB
---------------------------------------------
========================================================
Al Qaeda: The Insignificance of bin Laden's Latest Message
Stratfor Today » January 14, 2009 2049 GMT
ANWAR AMRO/AFP/Getty Images
Lebanese women protesting Israel’s military operation in Gaza on the same day Osama bin Laden released a message criticizing the Gaza offensive
Summary
As-Sahab, al Qaeda’s media arm, released an audio recording of Osama bin Laden on Jan. 14. The message is the first from bin Laden since May 2008. However, even if the tape were recorded recently (and there is not conclusive evidence that it was), the threats and warnings issued by bin Laden are neither new nor particularly threatening. Issuing messages appears to be all bin Laden can do lately — hardly indicative of the level of capability needed to maintain recruiting efforts and ensure al Qaeda’s position as the vanguard of the militant Islamic movement.
Analysis
In his first audio message since May 2008, al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden issued an audio recording through As-Sahab, al Qaeda’s media arm, on Jan. 14. The message comprised statements about the ongoing Israeli operation in Gaza and warnings to U.S. President George W. Bush’s successor about the challenges of inheriting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the message, bin Laden focuses on Bush and his cooperation with Israel in its operation against Hamas in the Gaza strip, and he urges Muslims to support the mujahideen with “money and men.” He goes on to link the world’s economic troubles to the United States’ missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying that if the next U.S. president “withdraws from the war, that would be a military defeat, and if he goes on with it, he’ll drown in economic crisis.”
Related Special Topic Page
The Devolution of Al Qaeda
Bin Laden and the core al Qaeda leadership (known as al Qaeda prime) do not matter much anymore, beyond their symbolic power. The continual release of statements without attacks means that these tapes are falling on deaf ears. Al Qaeda prime has failed to pull off an operation since the London bombings in 2005 — and even that attack appears to have involved only a tangential link to the grassroots jihadist network behind the plot. Even in South Asia, where al Qaeda is active, it relies heavily on local and regional allies for cover. Bin Laden has become an old revolutionary who refuses to retire though his time has passed.
While the tape’s content appears to indicate that it was made recently, it has not yet been confirmed that it is an entirely new communication. From what Stratfor has read of the statement so far, bin Laden does not even mention two of the incidents that have occurred to strengthen al Qaeda since his last message: the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai and militants’ gains in northwest Pakistan. Some other strange omissions include the failure to mention U.S. President-elect Barack Obama by name (bin Laden refers only to “Bush’s successor,” although he does reportedly directly quote Vice President-elect Joe Biden) and the absence of the online advertising and hype that usually precede such a release from bin Laden.
The fact that bin Laden spent most of the message railing against the United States and Israel for the actions in Gaza does not mean that the tape is recent. Israel has constantly been involved in Gaza operations, and this subject has been one of bin Laden’s main grievances on which he has spoken frequently. Compared to the message released Jan. 6 by Ayman al-Zawahiri (bin Laden’s deputy), which commented specifically on Obama and on Egypt’s failure to intervene in the Israeli strikes against Gaza, this message appears to go into much less detail.
Regardless of the content of bin Laden’s message, the fact remains that the connection between these tapes and attacks carried out by al Qaeda prime is very weak. This is the seventh tape (counting both audio and video) bin Laden has made since 2007 with no significant attack to back it up. In recent years, al Qaeda prime has really posed a physical threat only to South Asia — an area of operations whose size hardly corresponds to al Qaeda prime’s frequent calls for global jihad.
Without attacks to back it up, rhetoric appears to be bin Laden’s sole remaining weapon. And meanwhile, other militant Islamist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and countries like Iran, are gaining much greater prestige as they confront their traditional enemies, like Israel, head-on. Without the street credibility of being a legitimate revolutionary threat, bin Laden and al Qaeda prime lose the ability to attract recruits and money — and bin Laden’s appeal to supporters for both in his latest message is evidence of his declining stature.
Some of the omissions surrounding the tape also indicate al Qaeda prime’s struggle to stay alive. If al Qaeda were healthy, a mention of the Mumbai attacks and the gains militants have made against the government in northwestern Pakistan would have been expected. However, al Qaeda prime’s inability to capitalize on those gains shows just how much U.S. airstrikes have pinned the group down. The failure to advertise the message and hype its release indicates that al Qaeda prime faces a significant risk in getting an original tape from the source and distributing it online. Tipping off the United States that a tape would soon be released could compromise communication networks already worn thin by U.S. strikes in northwestern Pakistan.
Bin Laden (and other al Qadea prime talking heads) will continue to make these tapes and, given that the al Qaeda leader has orchestrated successful attacks in the past, some will continue to listen to him. But without a major action to back up his threats, bin Laden’s influence over the militant Islamist movement will fade. However, this does not mean the militant Islamist movement itself will fade. As the actions of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah (and Hezbollah’s patron, Iran) show, plenty of people are prepared to become the world’s top Islamist militant.
http://www.stratfor.com/
====================================
Please support this unique blog.....Buy your ....Books, Dvds, and CDs on our special link access to Amazon.Com Tony & Danute =================================================================
Breaking news & commentary ....click on active links for multiple photos!
==================================================
America has come a long way
Mari-Ann Kelam, Freedom Activist
Tallinn, Estonia
In a few short days, a black man will move from his private residence into a much larger and more expensive one owned not by him but by the taxpayers. A vast lawn, perimeter fence and many well-trained security specialists will insulate him from the rest of us, but the mere fact that this man will live there should make us all stop and count our blessings — because it proves we live in a nation where anything is possible.
Many believed this day would never come. Most of us hoped and prayed that it would, but few of us actually believed we would live to see it. Racism is an ugly thing in all of its forms and there is little doubt that if this man had moved there 15 years ago, there would have been a great outcry — possibly even rioting in the streets. Today, we can all be both grateful and proud that no such mayhem will take place when this man takes up residency in this house.
This man, moving into this house at this time in our nation's history is much more than a simple change of addresses for him — it is proof of a change in our attitude as a nation. It is an amends of sorts — the righting of a great wrong. It is a symbol of our growth, and of our willingness to judge a man, not by the color of his skin but by the content of his character.
There can be little doubt now that the vast majority of us truly believe this man has earned both his place in history and his new address. His time in this house will not be easy — it will be fraught with danger and he will face many challenges. We're sure there will be many times when he asks himself how in the world he ended up here, and, like all who have gone before him, the experience will age him greatly. But in every way a man can, he asked for this. His whole life for the past fifteen years appears to have been inexorably leading this man toward this house. It is highly probable that in the past, despite all of his actions, racism would have kept this man out of this house. Today, we thank the Lord above that we are Americans and live in a nation where wrongs are righted, where justice matters and where truly anything is possible. A nation where O.J. Simpson is finally going to jail.
What, you thought this was about Obama?
Here is an alternative email in case my regular one does not work: mariann.kelam@gmail.com
==========================================
Strategic Collapse at the Army War College
Posted By Patrick Poole On January 14, 2009 @ 12:00 am In . Positioning, Israel, Middle East, Politics, US News, World News 139 Comments
If you know your enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
This famous maxim by the ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu is familiar to every student of military science and strategy. His counsel is simple: understand your enemy, understand yourself. Nearly eight years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, however, important segments of our military infrastructure dedicated to training and educating the next generation of military leaders have woefully failed to heed Sun Tzu’s advice. Two recent blog posts by Washington Post military correspondent Tom Ricks related to policies and publications by the U.S. Army War College give evidence to this strategic collapse in the War on Terror.
Two weeks ago, Ricks [1] reported on a new [2] publication by Army War College research professor Sherifa Zuhur on Hamas and Israel that informs readers that Hamas has been misunderstood due to the misreporting by “Israeli and Western sources that villainize the group.” Zuhur concludes that Hamas isn’t so bad after all, so we all just need to get along and embrace the terrorist group through negotiations — a view apparently endorsed by the Army War College when it published her defense of Hamas.
A second post last week, “[3] Fiasco at the Army War College: The Sequel,” records an exchange between Ricks and defense expert and author [4] Mark Perry. Assessing the academic state of affairs at the War College, Perry informed Ricks:
It’s worse than you think. They have curtailed the curriculum so that their students are not exposed to radical Islam. Akin to denying students access to Marx during the Cold War.
This is hardly the first complaint that the military has failed to investigate and assess the strategic writings related to radical Islam and Islamic war doctrine. William Gawthrop, former head of the Joint Terrorism Task Force of the Defense Department’s Counterintelligence Field Activity, says in a military intelligence journal article that:
As late as early 2006, the senior service colleges of the Department of Defense had not incorporated into their curriculum a systematic study of Muhammad as a military or political leader. As a consequence, we still do not have an in-depth understanding of the war-fighting doctrine laid down by Muhammad, how it might be applied today by an increasing number of Islamic groups, or how it might be countered. (”The Sources and Patterns of Terrorism in Islamic Law,” The Vanguard: Journal of the Military Intelligence Corps Association, 11:4 [Fall 2006], p. 10)
One effort to remedy this strategic deficiency identified by Gawthrop was undertaken by Joint Chiefs of Staff analyst Stephen Coughlin, who published his finding in his master’s thesis at the National Defense Intelligence University, [5] “To Our Great Detriment”: Ignoring What Extremists Say About Jihad. In his thesis, Coughlin examines texts from multiple schools of Islamic jurisprudence to evaluate the respective traditions on jihad and their contemporary use by Islamic terrorists, concluding that failing to investigate these sources has left our military “disarmed in the war of ideas.”
Coughlin’s thesis had barely seen the light of day before he was [6] sacked from his position with the Joint Chiefs, having running afoul of another Pentagon official, Hesham Islam, a top-ranked Muslim advisor to Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England, who took issue with Coughlin’s academic analysis.
Another vocal critic identifying this wide gap in our military’s strategic studies is Army LTC Joseph Myers. He has recently voiced his concerns in an [7] interview with Congressional Quarterly and in a [8] review article published in the Army War College journal Parameters, where he argues that understanding the Islamic doctrine of war is a basic necessity for our military leadership:
To understand war, one has to study its philosophy, the grammar and logic of your opponent. Only then are you approaching strategic comprehension. To understand the war against Islamist terrorism one must begin to understand the Islamic way of war, its philosophy and doctrine, the meanings of jihad in Islam — and one needs to understand that those meanings are highly varied and utilitarian depending on the source.
In an [9] assessment published last May, Myers adds that the failure to study the strategy of jihadists leaves our own military strategy aimless and increases our long-term vulnerability to further terrorist attacks:
National security strategy is policy and policy implies a theory — a theory for action. To date we have no concrete theory of action because we have no fully articulated global threat model. We are seven years into a global war with armed combat and many dead and wounded, and yet still lack a common analytic paradigm to describe and model the enemy. It is a stunning failure to propel the country to war without a fully elaborated threat model that clarifies and specifies the enemy and makes clear our true objectives.
The lack of a threat model and a theory for action explains our schizophrenia, our failures, and homeland security shortcomings.
Understanding the enemy — “the threat,” his threat doctrine and the authoritative statements, sources, and philosophy undergirding that doctrine — is a primary duty. That is the first step in developing a threat model. It is the vital step in the [10] Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield process, to template enemy doctrine by laying it over the terrain: the physical, human, and cultural terrain to understand its manifestations in reality. These are the first relevant questions to be answered for U.S. national security analysis.
This intellectual and strategic groundwork for the “long war” against Islamic terrorism will never be accomplished as long as our senior service schools and military academies continue to neglect this vital area of strategic study. Regardless of what one might think about the relation between Islamic theology and jihadist justifications for terror, it is a fact that they believe they are operating in accordance with Islamic tradition. Islamic war doctrine ought to be studied on that basis alone.
But returning to Sun Tzu’s maxim, perhaps the root of our military’s strategic schizophrenia is not so much about our refusal to understand our enemies as much as it is a failure to understand ourselves. As a nation, we no longer have a sense of who we are, what we believe, or even why we fight. At the height of World War II, would a faculty member at the Army War College have even considered attempting to defend Nazi fascism or Japanese imperialism, as War College professor Sherifa Zuhur has now done with Hamas? That is a fitting testimony of how far we are from both aspects of Sun Tzu’s counsel.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/strategic-collapse-at-the-army-war-college/
Studying the Islamic Way of War
At the inaugural conference for the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa (ASMEA) back in April, presenter LTC Joseph Myers made an interesting point that deserves further elaboration. Though military studies have traditionally valued and absorbed the texts of classical war doctrine — such as Clausewitz's On War, Sun Tsu's The Art of War, even the exploits of Alexander the Great as recorded in Arrian and Plutarch — Islamic war doctrine, which is just as if not more textually grounded, is totally ignored.
Full report: http://www.meforum.org/article/2050
------------------------------------------------------------
Reader comments:
There is a strategic collapse not only at the Army War College, but at the USA itself! But, have we not voted for it?
AB
---------------------------------------------
========================================================
Al Qaeda: The Insignificance of bin Laden's Latest Message
Stratfor Today » January 14, 2009 2049 GMT
ANWAR AMRO/AFP/Getty Images
Lebanese women protesting Israel’s military operation in Gaza on the same day Osama bin Laden released a message criticizing the Gaza offensive
Summary
As-Sahab, al Qaeda’s media arm, released an audio recording of Osama bin Laden on Jan. 14. The message is the first from bin Laden since May 2008. However, even if the tape were recorded recently (and there is not conclusive evidence that it was), the threats and warnings issued by bin Laden are neither new nor particularly threatening. Issuing messages appears to be all bin Laden can do lately — hardly indicative of the level of capability needed to maintain recruiting efforts and ensure al Qaeda’s position as the vanguard of the militant Islamic movement.
Analysis
In his first audio message since May 2008, al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden issued an audio recording through As-Sahab, al Qaeda’s media arm, on Jan. 14. The message comprised statements about the ongoing Israeli operation in Gaza and warnings to U.S. President George W. Bush’s successor about the challenges of inheriting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the message, bin Laden focuses on Bush and his cooperation with Israel in its operation against Hamas in the Gaza strip, and he urges Muslims to support the mujahideen with “money and men.” He goes on to link the world’s economic troubles to the United States’ missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying that if the next U.S. president “withdraws from the war, that would be a military defeat, and if he goes on with it, he’ll drown in economic crisis.”
Related Special Topic Page
The Devolution of Al Qaeda
Bin Laden and the core al Qaeda leadership (known as al Qaeda prime) do not matter much anymore, beyond their symbolic power. The continual release of statements without attacks means that these tapes are falling on deaf ears. Al Qaeda prime has failed to pull off an operation since the London bombings in 2005 — and even that attack appears to have involved only a tangential link to the grassroots jihadist network behind the plot. Even in South Asia, where al Qaeda is active, it relies heavily on local and regional allies for cover. Bin Laden has become an old revolutionary who refuses to retire though his time has passed.
While the tape’s content appears to indicate that it was made recently, it has not yet been confirmed that it is an entirely new communication. From what Stratfor has read of the statement so far, bin Laden does not even mention two of the incidents that have occurred to strengthen al Qaeda since his last message: the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai and militants’ gains in northwest Pakistan. Some other strange omissions include the failure to mention U.S. President-elect Barack Obama by name (bin Laden refers only to “Bush’s successor,” although he does reportedly directly quote Vice President-elect Joe Biden) and the absence of the online advertising and hype that usually precede such a release from bin Laden.
The fact that bin Laden spent most of the message railing against the United States and Israel for the actions in Gaza does not mean that the tape is recent. Israel has constantly been involved in Gaza operations, and this subject has been one of bin Laden’s main grievances on which he has spoken frequently. Compared to the message released Jan. 6 by Ayman al-Zawahiri (bin Laden’s deputy), which commented specifically on Obama and on Egypt’s failure to intervene in the Israeli strikes against Gaza, this message appears to go into much less detail.
Regardless of the content of bin Laden’s message, the fact remains that the connection between these tapes and attacks carried out by al Qaeda prime is very weak. This is the seventh tape (counting both audio and video) bin Laden has made since 2007 with no significant attack to back it up. In recent years, al Qaeda prime has really posed a physical threat only to South Asia — an area of operations whose size hardly corresponds to al Qaeda prime’s frequent calls for global jihad.
Without attacks to back it up, rhetoric appears to be bin Laden’s sole remaining weapon. And meanwhile, other militant Islamist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and countries like Iran, are gaining much greater prestige as they confront their traditional enemies, like Israel, head-on. Without the street credibility of being a legitimate revolutionary threat, bin Laden and al Qaeda prime lose the ability to attract recruits and money — and bin Laden’s appeal to supporters for both in his latest message is evidence of his declining stature.
Some of the omissions surrounding the tape also indicate al Qaeda prime’s struggle to stay alive. If al Qaeda were healthy, a mention of the Mumbai attacks and the gains militants have made against the government in northwestern Pakistan would have been expected. However, al Qaeda prime’s inability to capitalize on those gains shows just how much U.S. airstrikes have pinned the group down. The failure to advertise the message and hype its release indicates that al Qaeda prime faces a significant risk in getting an original tape from the source and distributing it online. Tipping off the United States that a tape would soon be released could compromise communication networks already worn thin by U.S. strikes in northwestern Pakistan.
Bin Laden (and other al Qadea prime talking heads) will continue to make these tapes and, given that the al Qaeda leader has orchestrated successful attacks in the past, some will continue to listen to him. But without a major action to back up his threats, bin Laden’s influence over the militant Islamist movement will fade. However, this does not mean the militant Islamist movement itself will fade. As the actions of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah (and Hezbollah’s patron, Iran) show, plenty of people are prepared to become the world’s top Islamist militant.
http://www.stratfor.com/
====================================
Al Jazeera Signs Deal to Air Throughout U.S.
Friday, January 16, 2009 7:17 AM
NEW YORK - The Al Jazeera Network plans to announce on Thursday that it has signed a deal to run its news on Worldfocus, a syndicated nightly news program produced in New York and distributed throughout the United States.
The deal would help the international news network, one of the top services in the Arabic-speaking world, broaden its reach in the United States, where it so far has been available to only a limited audience.
Worldfocus, hosted by former NBC News correspondent Martin Savidge, is produced by New York City public broadcaster WLIW and syndicated to a number of Public Broadcasting Service affiliates, as well as other stations in 60 U.S. markets, including 27 of the top 30.
Al Jazeera declined to disclose terms of the deal.
The service's Arabic-language network is available in the United States through the DISH Network Corp. It has been trying to increase the distribution of its English- language network through cable television, but so far is available only in Washington, D.C., Toledo, Ohio and Burlington, Vermont.
One of its English-language programs, "Witness," reaches viewers through the LINK TV network, which is distributed by DISH Network and others.
Al Jazeera also is expanding its presence on the Internet, with a YouTube channel, a Twitter feed on the Gaza war and a free broadcast at an online service called Livestation.
The network, whose English broadcasts appear all over the world through deals with companies such as Singapore's SingTel and Hong Kong's PCCW, has started running ads in papers such as The Washington Post and The New York Times, advertising its Web presence with the slogan, "Find out what you're missing."
Al Jazeera has increased its marketing campaign, particularly during Israel's air-and-ground offensive into Gaza that began about three weeks ago.
It also plans to begin running ads in several weeks that a spokesman said will address misconceptions about the network in the United States. The U.S. government criticized the network for irresponsible and biased news reporting when the United States launched the 2003 war in Iraq.
http://www.newsmax.com/printTemplate.html
=================================================
Eastern Europe Faces Freezing Temperatures and Russian Gas Cut-Off
By Stefan Bos Budapest15 January 2009
Bos report - Download (MP3) Bos report - Listen (MP3)
Protesters in Sofia, Bulgaria demonstrate against government over gas cut-off, 14 Jan 2009With freezing temperatures across most of Europe, there was heated anger, especially in Eastern Europe on Wednesday, about the suspension in natural gas deliveries from Russia through Ukraine. The gas crisis comes at a difficult time for leading politicians, especially in Bulgaria, where some 2,000 people demanded the government's resignation on Wednesday over allegations of corruption.
The shortages of natural gas from Russia added to anger of protesters who braved the cold in Bulgaria's capital, Sofia, to demand the resignation of the country's Socialist-led government.
They were upset that Bulgaria remains one of the poorest countries in Europe, despite being a member of the European Union.
What began as a peaceful protest of students, farmers and medical workers in front of the parliament building, turned violent when masked youths threw snow and rocks at police, and vandalized several police vehicles.
Officials say several people were injured, including six police officers. Dozens of protesters were detained.
Bulgarians are not the only East Europeans frustrated during this unseasonable cold winter. There have been reports of people freezing to death across the region, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas via Ukraine.
Russia says neighboring Ukraine is holding up the transport of Russian natural gas to Europe. Moscow cut all gas supplies to the West last week in a pricing dispute with Ukraine. Kyiv blames Moscow for the supply disruption.
In Hungary, where reserves are running low, officials say some 40 people have died this month from frigid temperatures, often because heating systems do not work properly due to a lack of natural gas pressure.
More deaths have been reported across Eastern Europe, where many people are now searching forests for wood to use as heating fuel.
Fearing more deaths, Hungary's government has ordered municipalities and energy companies not to cut off people who do not pay their gas bills.
In Slovakia's capital, Bratislava, people expressed their frustration with their leaders on Slovak television. "They have to give the natural gas to us," one middle aged bus driver said. "Because it is too cold. A lot of people can freeze to death."
Slovakia's Prime Minister, Robert Fico, who visited Moscow on Wednesday, has not ruled out restarting a Soviet-era nuclear reactor despite European Union protests as gas reserves are expected to run out by the end of the month.
People in Bratislava told Slovak television they need energy -- nuclear, if necessary. "We need to have normal temperatures at home this winter," one man said. "So if they want to restart the nuclear reactor and keep the operation within international rules, I think it's okay," he added.
Slovakia, which depends on Russia for nearly all of its natural gas imports, has already declared a state of energy emergency to conserve its gas reserves. That has forced several companies including French and South Korean car makers, to suspend production.
Similar measures have been introduced in Hungary and other East European countries.
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-01-15-voa5.cfm
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Germany could hold key to gas deal
As Germany prepares to welcome Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the BBC's Berlin correspondent Steven Rosenberg considers how Germany could broker a deal to end the energy dispute between Russia and Ukraine.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7832481.stm
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Putin Reaps Praise at Home for Freezing Ukraine (Update1)
By Alex Nicholson
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s standoff with Ukraine over supplies of natural gas may have angered European Union leaders and denied heat to millions; at home, it’s winning him plaudits.
In turning off gas supplies to Ukraine and Europe, Putin showed Russians that he is in charge as a recession looms, and that the West must treat him as a key player in global energy. He also is pushing for higher long-term revenue for state- controlled OAO Gazprom, and has damaged West-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.
“The more they criticize Putin abroad and the more they fight with Russia, the greater his political weight grows,” said Mikhail Delyagin, an economic adviser to former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and director of the Institute for Globalization Studies in Moscow.
Russia has invited Ukraine and such gas-starved countries as Bulgaria and Slovakia to meet at an emergency summit in Moscow tomorrow. The stalemate has left parts of eastern Europe without fuel during sub-freezing temperatures. Russia and Ukraine blame each other for a failed Jan. 13 deal to resume gas flows, while EU leaders are struggling to end the crisis.
Putin arrived in Berlin today, where he will face his biggest European customer in meetings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The get-together probably won’t be acrimonious, according to Jan Techau, a European and security affairs expert at the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations.
‘Friendly Distance’
“Merkel will maintain her friendly distance from Putin,” Techau said. “There is a consensus in Germany that good relations with Russia are important.”
Still, Merkel herself said yesterday that she saw “a general danger that Russia to a certain extent will lose its reliability if we see very long interruptions in gas deliveries.”
The dispute and Russian state-controlled media coverage of it has spotlighted Putin, 56, more than President Dmitry Medvedev, his chosen successor when he stepped down from the presidency last May. As the former KGB colonel was shown pacing Gazprom’s headquarters Jan. 13 on the Vesti-24 channel, Medvedev hosted a Kremlin banquet to honor parents with large families.
Putin’s approval rating was 83 percent in an October poll published by the Moscow-based Levada Center, and almost 90 percent in September after Russia trounced Georgia in a five-day war condemned by the EU and the U.S. No polls have been released since the gas crisis began earlier this month.
Don’t Mess With Russia
“Putin has again shown to the domestic Russian audience that he is a strong leader,” said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib Financial Corp. in Moscow. “His message to the people is that nobody should mess with Russia when he is around.”
He has less sway over the economy. It may contract in the first half, plunging Russia into its first recession since 1998, presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich said last month. The 2009 budget may show its first deficit in a decade, and Urals crude oil has plunged 70 percent from its July high.
The ruble has lost 28 percent against the dollar since the start of August, reaching a record low today as it headed for the biggest weekly decline against the dollar in a decade. Russia’s Micex stock index has tumbled almost 60 percent.
European alternatives to supplies from Gazprom are limited and no final decision has been made on financing the planned Nabucco pipeline, a rival route intended to carry central Asian gas to Europe by 2013.
Long-Term Dependence
“The dependence on Russian gas will remain the European reality for some time,” said Masha Lipman, a political analyst at the Moscow Carnegie Center.
Even if Europe is able to arrange alternatives, Gazprom’s share of the gas market in Europe is unlikely to fall below a quarter in the coming decade, according to Troika Dialog analyst Valery Nesterov.
While the dispute has cost Gazprom $1.2 billion in lost exports since the start of the year, according to Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, the company is poised to benefit in the long run.
It is trying to charge market prices in Ukraine for the first time after allowing discounts that are a relic of the Soviet Union. Had Gazprom received the going rate for Europe last year from Ukraine, it would have garnered an additional $12 billion in revenue, UralSib’s Weafer estimates.
Orange Revolution
In the end, Yushchenko, who has courted the EU since leading the 2004 Orange Revolution with promises to wean Ukraine off its dependence on Russia, may suffer from his anti-Russian views. He has accused the Kremlin of playing a role in the poisoning attempt on his life during the 2004 presidential election. He also sided with Georgia during the August conflict.
“There is also a personal side to all this, as with the war with Georgia,” said Yulia Latynina, a political commentator on the Ekho Moskvy radio station. “What we are seeing now is a war with Yushchenko.”
The EU may have to weigh Ukraine’s aspirations to become a member against ensuring Russia can fill its energy needs.
“Friendship has certain boundaries,” Nesterov said. “Europe won’t sacrifice its gas to protect the interests of Ukraine.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Nicholson in Moscow at anicholson6@bloomberg.net; Last Updated: January 16, 2009 09:13 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=acVl7OUWloEo&refer=europe#
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Adamkus:Urgent solution needed to Baltic energy security issue
Today, 16:32
Vilnius, January 16 (Interfax) - Special attention should be paid to issues related to the energy security of the Baltic countries, Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus said at a meeting with Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt on Friday.
"The present situation in Europe once again confirms the need for an urgent solution to energy security issues facing the Baltic nations," the Lithuanian president said.
Adamkus and Bildt discussed the situation in Europe provoked by the ongoing gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine, the presidential press service told Interfax.
"It is increasingly important for Europe to draw all the appropriate conclusions from this situation, to bolster its energy policy and to speak with one voice," the Swedish minister said.
Bildt also said that Europe should find a way to diversify its energy sources.
Addressing a project to build a gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, Adamkus said that "this project does not reflect the energy interests of all EU states, and it creates numerous ecological problems in the Baltic Sea and other security problems."
http://www.kyivpost.com/world/33505/print
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Lithuania: Police Use Tear Gas On Protesters
January 16, 2009 1424 GMT
Police in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Jan. 16 used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse a crowd of about 5,000 anti-government protesters who had begun throwing bottles and stones at the Lithuanian parliament building, Reuters reported. The protesters were pushed back after having smashed several windows in the building with stones.
http://www.stratfor.com/
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Police use tear gas to break up Lithuanian demonstration - Summary
Posted on : 2009-01-16 Author : DPA News Category : Europe
Vilnius - Tear gas and baton charges were used in the Baltic states for the second time in less than a week on Friday when the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, joined the Latvian capital, Riga, as the scene of violent clashes between police and protestors. Around 7,000 people from across Lithuania on Friday gathered outside national parliament and government offices in Vilnius for a union-led demonstration against tax increases, job losses and public spending cuts.
Soon after the official start of the demonstration at midday, some elements in the crowd chanted "Thieves come out!" and pelted the parliament building with a variety of missiles including snowballs, stones, bottles and vegetables, breaking several windows.
An unconfirmed report suggested a shot may have been fired from the crowd through a window.
Soon afterwards, riot police reacted by arresting a group of the most aggressive protestors, who had attempted to break into the parliament building.
Tear gas was then used to disperse the rest of the crowd from the immediate vicinity, before protestors regrouped and made a second attempt to storm the parliament.
Again they were beaten away and teargas was deployed again. Order had largely been restored by around 3 pm.
Around a dozen people were reported to have been injured during the clashes according to a local hospital, but none of them were in a serious condition.
Demonstrators at other locations in Vilnius outside government buildings were less confrontational, contenting themselves with handing in petitions and waving banners. Crowds also gathered in several provincial towns across the country.
Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus said he was generally satisfied with the authorities' handling of the disturbance and called for cool heads on all sides.
"The dialogue should be lead not by street riots and clashes, but by normal, calm discussions between the people and the government," Adamkus said.
Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius convened an emergency meeting of senior state officials and security services on Friday afternoon to plan his response and ensure public safety overnight.
Political protests in neighbouring Latvia descended into violence earlier in the week and similar scenes were also witnessed in Bulgaria as anger over a bleak economic outlook and political mismanagement threatens to boil over.
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/250977,police-use-tear-gas-to-break-up-lithuanian-demonstration--summary.html#
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Around 7,000 protest anti-crisis measures in Lithuanian capital
16/01/2009 15:54 VILNIUS, January 16 (RIA Novosti) - Some 7,000 people took part in a protest against government anti-crisis policies in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on Friday, national media said.
The trade union-organized rally was held in front of the Lithuanian parliament and government offices.
Some 400 police officers were deployed to the protests. Local authorities were concerned that the rally would see violence similar to that which hit protests in the neighboring Baltic state of Latvia on January 13, where more than 40 people were injured in clashes with riot police.
Protesters were demonstrating against anti-crisis policies that have led to tax increases and public spending cuts, and demanded that government officials show solidarity with the people by decreasing their own salaries.
Police were forced to use tear gas at one point as the crowd tried to force its way into parliament. However, there were no injuries and the crowd has now dispersed.
http://en.rian.ru/world/20090116/119629460.html
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Mass riots follow protest- Emergency declared
Jan 13, 2009TBT Staff
What was planned to be a peaceful protest soon turned into a mass mob. Photo: Toms Baugis
RIGA-What began as a calm 10,000 strong protest in Dome Square has turned into a riot. Following the peaceful demonstration, thousands of demonstrators mobbed the parliament building and have destroyed several police cars. Protestors have also broken into a Balzams liquor store and are currently looting the general vicinity around the parliament.
Medics report that eight people have been injured so far, as rioting continues into the night.
A state of emergency has been declared by police as they report that drunk youths are still vandalizing the Old Town of Riga.
Early in the evening, a mob tried to break into the Parliament building by breaking windows and were held back with police tear gas.
With shouts of “Dissolve the Saeima” the protestors attempted to storm into the parliament building.
The rally earlier had been held to protest the Saeima and to demand the dissolution of its current members
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/22098/
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Vilnius protest turns violent
Jan 16, 2009Adam Mullett, VILNIUS
Protesters hurled smoke bombs and rocks at riot police. (Photo by Nathan Greenhalgh
VILNIUS - Police were forced to resort to rubber bullets and tear gas after hooligans hijacked a peaceful protest outside of Seimas (Lithuanian parliament) today.
The protests were against the government’s crisis plan, which included substantial tax hikes.
“We are angry from the policies of the politics and the rise in prices. They should cut more expenses from the budget, not raise taxes. If there is not enough money, you have to cut expenditures – stop building, stop celebrating things and stop raising Seimas salaries,” one student told The Baltic Times.
“They have to make these decisions, but the problem is that they are hurrying a lot. The government has just changed and they have to do everything fast – they are rushing and making mistakes,” he added.
Arturas Zuokas, a member of the ruling coalition, told The Baltic Times that the government has gone too fast with its reforms.
“I think a good message for the ruling coalition is that we need to talk more with people about the situation that exists in Lithuania, and not to do some strange and too quick reforms that have been done in the last months. Its an important part of democracy,” he said.
“I can understand what they are saying and doing. Their main question is how to live and what their future will be like for them.”
The government has raised the tax burden on workers and business owners, which has put many out of work.
ERUPTION
Prior to the first wave of violence, protestors were pelting the Seimas with snowballs and rocks. After riot police arrived, the protestors turned violent and began throwing fireworks, glass and bricks.
Tear gas was fired to disperse the crowd, which then responded by throwing bricks, glass, and fireworks at the riot police.
Directly after the first tear gas attack, one student said, while crying and coughing, “I think this is shit – our parliament works bad – people are without work. There are young people without work – there isn’t any money. We have to pay for cars, but we have no money. I don’t think the police should have acted like this, because we haven’t done anything.”
The fighting escalated when hooligans began destroying construction barricades and rubbish bins. Police fired rubber bullets in response to glass shards broken from the Seimas fountain.
Police pushed the hooligans down Gedimino Avenue to Lukiskes Square where they were dispersed. However, another group of hooligans attacked the Seimas again, but were quickly dispersed.
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/22139/
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N.Y. / REGION January 12, 2009 City Room: Court Stays Demolition of Lithuanian Church
By Sewell Chan
An appellate court has blocked the Archdiocese of New York's effort to demolish Our Lady of Vilnius Church in SoHo, which served the Lithuanian community until it was closed in 2007.
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From: Joanie GustavsonSent: Monday, January 12, 2009 5:43:58 PMSubject: YouTube - Zuvedra - Brasil lithuanian team dancing in Brazil!!!!1 champions many times overhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vor_51bXc4w==============================================================
From: Joanie GustavsonSent: Monday, January 12, 2009 5:48:23 PMSubject: YouTube - Lithuania Latin Formation 2008 James Bond!!!!!!!!!!!! :-))http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDd6c5o5V_U&feature=related===========================================================
Astronomy Picture of the Day
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From: Joanie Gustavson
From: Joanie Gustavson
Astronomy Picture of the Day
http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap090112.html
Unusual Light Pillars Over Sigulda, Latvia
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Erection of electricity grid Lithuania-Poland to start in 2010
Petras Vaida, BC, Vilnius, 15.01.2009.
As it has been planned, the erection of the electricity grid interconnection between Lithuania and Poland is intended to be started in 2010. It was confirmed by the LEO LT subsidiary Lietuvos Energija.
On Wednesday, in Warsaw, Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius met with Jaroslav Neverovic, chairman of the board of directors of the company LitPolLink for the implementation project on the electricity bridge, and Wladyslaw Mielczarski, chairman of the supervisory board of the company and coordinator of the project assigned by the European Union, who presented the action plan of the Project, informs ELTA.
During the meeting, participants discussed the progress of the project, directions for the activities foreseen in the action plan such as the preparation of special and technical plans, inclusion of the route into the plans of local self-government in Poland, environmental issues, etc.
According to Neverovic, it is sought to prepare for the erection of the electricity link and comply with all the EU requirements concerning valuable natural objects, since the link would pass along protected objects on both sides.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/energy/?doc=8785
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Estonian Laws no longer available for Russian speakers
Jan 07, 2009By Jana Belugina
TALLINN - The Estonian government’s decision to discontinue translation of legal documents and legal acts into the Russian language has angered native Russian speakers in the Baltic country. The unpopular decision, which will deprive about 400,000 people of the possibility to fully understand legislation and their rights as citizens in their native language, has been justified by a state budget shortfall.
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/22053/
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Unusual Light Pillars Over Sigulda, Latvia
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Erection of electricity grid Lithuania-Poland to start in 2010
Petras Vaida, BC, Vilnius, 15.01.2009.
As it has been planned, the erection of the electricity grid interconnection between Lithuania and Poland is intended to be started in 2010. It was confirmed by the LEO LT subsidiary Lietuvos Energija.
On Wednesday, in Warsaw, Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius met with Jaroslav Neverovic, chairman of the board of directors of the company LitPolLink for the implementation project on the electricity bridge, and Wladyslaw Mielczarski, chairman of the supervisory board of the company and coordinator of the project assigned by the European Union, who presented the action plan of the Project, informs ELTA.
During the meeting, participants discussed the progress of the project, directions for the activities foreseen in the action plan such as the preparation of special and technical plans, inclusion of the route into the plans of local self-government in Poland, environmental issues, etc.
According to Neverovic, it is sought to prepare for the erection of the electricity link and comply with all the EU requirements concerning valuable natural objects, since the link would pass along protected objects on both sides.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/energy/?doc=8785
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Estonian Laws no longer available for Russian speakers
Jan 07, 2009By Jana Belugina
TALLINN - The Estonian government’s decision to discontinue translation of legal documents and legal acts into the Russian language has angered native Russian speakers in the Baltic country. The unpopular decision, which will deprive about 400,000 people of the possibility to fully understand legislation and their rights as citizens in their native language, has been justified by a state budget shortfall.
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/22053/
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