July 25, 2008
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Geopolitical Diary: The Solid Footing of U.S.-Iranian Negotiations
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Geopolitical Diary: The Solid Footing of U.S.-Iranian Negotiations
Stratfor Today »-->July 21, 2008
After a weekend of heated political haggling in Geneva between the United States and Iran over the latter’s nuclear program, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had some tough words for Iran on Monday. Speaking from Abu Dhabi, Rice basically said that Iran needs to quit stalling, get serious about these negotiations and suspend uranium enrichment or else face another round of hard-hitting sanctions in two weeks. She added that the United States has already done enough to demonstrate that it is serious about these talks, casting doubt on whether Washington would again send a U.S. diplomat to the next meeting in Geneva to hear Iran’s response.
From Washington’s point of view, the U.S. government has already taken a number of concrete steps to create a political atmosphere conducive to negotiating with the Iranians. In the lead-up to the Geneva meeting, the United States floated the idea of setting up a diplomatic office in Tehran, backed away from its demand for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment in the “pre-negotiation” phase, delayed negotiations with the Iraqi government on keeping a long-term U.S. military presence in Iraq and broke with long-standing policy by sending a U.S. diplomat to the meeting in Geneva.
As far as the United States is concerned, it is Iran’s turn to make concessions, beginning with the ever-so-touchy subject of uranium enrichment. But by refusing to budge on suspending uranium enrichment to further the talks, Iran made clear over the weekend that it is not about to be rushed with these negotiations. A number of critics of our analysis on U.S.-Iran negotiations are quick to claim that this is all just a stalling ploy by the Iranians to buy time to advance their nuclear program. That might be the case, but the Iranians don’t exactly have the luxury of stalling for time.
Iran cannot afford a stalemate in Iraq that gives the United States and Saudi Arabia ample time to bolster Iraq’s Sunnis and undercut Iran’s historic chance at consolidating Shiite influence in its Western neighbor. Moreover, the Iranians remember well the value of sorting out the tough issues with a weak U.S. administration in an election year rather than starting from scratch with a new and unpredictable government carrying a fresh political mandate come November. To this end, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a highly influential figure in the Iranian leadership, has stressed in recent interviews how Iran must learn from its past and not write off the war threats from Israel and the United States. Rafsanjani has drawn parallels between the current threat environment and the situation Iran faced during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, when the country was hit hard by a U.S.-backed Iraqi regime.
The hard part for both Iran and the United States comes now, and Iran is facing a strict timetable to sort out the nuclear issue and get a fair deal on Iraq.
But Iran has a very delicate matter on its hands. After decades of pursuing a foreign policy built on hostility toward the United States, Iran now needs to convince its public that now is a good idea to talk to the Great Satan. Likewise, the United States needs to demonstrate that it’s politically acceptable to talk to a member of the Axis of Evil. The United States is a bit further along in this public relations campaign. After the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group report was released back in December 2006, the U.S. public warmed up to the idea of holding negotiations with Iran. In fact, the political debate has evolved to the point where the bulk of Americans are asking, “why aren’t we talking to the Iranians?”
In Iran, it gets a bit trickier. Living in a relatively closed society and constantly being subjected to stories of Iranian prowess and U.S. cowardice makes for a difficult transition. Indeed, there have already been clear signs of a power struggle within Iran’s ruling circles over whether Iran should move forward with these negotiations, with the main concern being how to open up to the West without having the clerics lose control of the regime.
Comforted by the fact that Washington has largely accepted that the clerical regime is here to stay, the pragmatic conservative faction in Iran appears to be winning in this debate with a public relations campaign already in full swing to prepare the Iranian public for a political rapprochement with the United States. The Iranian state-run press has been smothered lately with articles and op-eds discussing the merits of negotiating with the United States. A number of endorsements for this path have come from the senior clerical leadership, notably including Iran’s primary decision-maker, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In fact, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s vice president in charge of tourism caused quite the stir Monday when he stated “Iran is friends with the American and Israeli people” and that Iran sees “the Americans as one of the best nations in the world” — quite a long way from the traditional Iranian rhet oric of “Death to America”.
We can’t help but notice the uptick in these messages coming from the Iranian leadership. If Iran were simply jerking the Americans and the Europeans around in these negotiations to buy time for a nuclear program that has extremely low chances of developing into a real military threat in the first place, there would be little need to go through the trouble of opening up the public’s mind to re-engaging with the West. And while the U.S.-Iranian political jockeying and military posturing will intensify in the coming weeks, no matter how rocky the road, these negotiations are on solid footing.
http://www.stratfor.com/
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Iran in Latin America
The Americas Report Vol. 4 - Issue 29 Jul 24, 2008
Visit the Americas Report blog at http://themengesproject.blogspot.com/ and leave your comments
Highlighted Story: "An Update on Iran's Activities in Latin America" by David Witter
Chavez and AhmadinejadSix years after President Bush's 2002 State of the Union address, the United States may be facing a new Axis of Evil. Iran has been courting leftist political regimes throughout Latin America, using anti-American sentiment as the foundation for improving economic, political, and possibly military ties in the Western hemisphere. The increasingly strong alliance between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and leaders of the so-called New Latin Left could develop into a serious security threat in the near future. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez appears to be the linchpin of this alliance. US interests could be threatened by either the Islamic terrorist groups active on the continent or by the ramifications of regional economic and political exclusion. Both of these possible avenues pass through Venezuela on their way to Iran, the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism.
After enduring the most deadly attack on the continental United States since Pearl Harbor, the American government has worked tirelessly to ensure safety at home from Islamic terrorism. However, the pervasiveness of Islamic terrorist organizations in Latin America adds a new layer to this threat. Hezbollah – prior to 9/11, responsible for more American deaths than any other terrorist organization – has been the most active Islamic terrorist group in Latin America. That Iran supplies Hezbollah with money and arms makes their presence in our backyard all the more threatening.
Logo of the "Party of Allah" in Chavez's VenezuelaHezbollah has been operating in Latin America since the early 1990's. In Buenos Aires in 1992 and 1994 the Israeli embassy and Jewish Community Center respectively were both bombed. While no one has been brought to justice for these acts of terrorism, arrest warrants were issued to prominent members of Hezbollah and the Iranian government. One warrant for these attacks was issued in 1999 for Imad Mugniyah, a Hezbollah military commander also responsible for the 1983 US Embassy bombings and the 1985 hijacking of TWA flight 847. Seven years later, Argentinian prosecutor Alberto Nisman indicted Iranian President Rafsanjani and seven other Iranian officials in absentia for masterminding the attacks, reinforcing the link between Iran and Hezbollah in Latin America.
Hezbollah continued to be active a decade later in the frontier region known as the Tri-Border Area (TBA) that spans the borders of Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. US Southern Command estimates that Islamist terror groups based there raise between $300-500 million a year. One such financier was Assad Ahmad Barakat, currently serving a six and half year sentence in Paraguay for tax evasion following his arrest in La Ciudad del Este. He was considered to be a deputy to Hezbollah finance director Ali Kazam, as well as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's primary liaison in the TBA. Barakat used two businesses as cover to generate over $50 million that was then transferred to Hezbollah in Lebanon. He was also involved in a counterfeiting ring that distributed fake American dollars throughout the TBA. Some believe that Barakat was a client of Mugniyah, who is thought to have established terrorist cells in la Ciudad Del Este.
This threat can only increase as Iran continues to strengthen its partnership with Venezuela. Hezbollah is known to have a strong presence in Venezuela. The US military's Southern Command has reported that there are several Hezbollah support and logistics cells on Isla de Margarita, a Venezuelan island home to a large Lebanese expatriate community. These cells have already demonstrated intent to infiltrate the United States; it is suspected that the members of a Hezbollah cell arrested in North Carolina in 1992 were assisted by a support unit in Isla de Margarita. Additionally, there are concerns of a home-grown Hezbollah faction operating in Venezuela.
To continue reading, view the full version of the Americas Report (PDF)
http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/Home.aspx?SID=66
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July 24, 2008
World Briefing Europe
By ANNE BARNARD
President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela said his country would be willing to host Russian bases there, the Russian news agency Interfax reported. “Russia has enough resources to secure its presence in different parts of the world. If Russian armed forces would like to be present in Venezuela, they will be welcomed warmly,” Mr. Chávez told reporters on Tuesday, in response to a question about whether Russia could put bases in Venezuela. “We will raise flags, beat drums and sing songs, because our allies will come, with whom we have a common worldview,” said Mr. Chávez, who was in Moscow for talks with President Dmitri A. Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/24/world/europe/24briefs-VENEZUELAOFF_BRF.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=world&pagewanted=print
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The Associated Press
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
MOSCOW: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that military cooperation with Russia is proceeding at full speed, Russian news agencies reported Wednesday.
Chavez said Venezuela was in the process of re-equipping its army and purchasing Russian fighter jets and parts for an integrated anti-aircraft system.
"Russia will continue shipping components for this system," Chavez said, according to the Interfax news agency.
"We are proceeding at full speed," Chavez told a press conference late Tuesday, the agency reported.
Interfax reported that Chavez also said Venezuela would welcome Russian military bases in the South American country, but the Venezuelan government denied that report.
"At no moment did the head of state make such an offer," the government said.
The report quoted Chavez as saying "If Russian armed forces would like to come to Venezuela, they will be welcomed warmly."
Chavez arrived in Russia to broker a number of deals involving weapons purchases, oil exploration and the creation of a joint financial institution.
He refused to estimate the size of the arms deals when asked, Interfax reported.
"Don't worry about the amounts — that's our task," Chavez said, according to the agency.
Venezuela, which spent US$4 billion (€2.54 billion) on international arms purchases between 2005 and 2007, mostly from Russia and China, has a defense budget of US$2.6 billion (€1.65 billion), according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"Venezuela is expending an awful lot of resources to obtain an awful lot of military hardware — some would say much more than they actually need," U.S. State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said Wednesday in Washington.
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=14735958
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Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:44pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A top U.S. Air Force officer warned on Tuesday that Russia would be crossing "a red line" if it were to use Cuba as a refueling base for nuclear-capable bombers.
Gen. Norton Schwartz, whose nomination to become the Air Force's top military officer is being considered by the Senate, was asked at his confirmation hearing how he would advise U.S. policymakers if Russia were to proceed with such a plan.
Russia's Izvestia newspaper this week quoted a "highly placed source" as saying Russia could land Tu-160 supersonic bombers nicknamed "White Swans" in Cuba as a response to a planned U.S. missile defense shield in Europe, which Moscow opposes.
"I certainly would offer best military advice that we should engage the Russians not to pursue that approach," Schwartz told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
"And if they did, I think we should stand strong and indicate that that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America."
Russian Defense Ministry officials have tried to pour cold water on the report, saying the newspaper story was written under a false name and quoted a source at an organization that did not exist.
The suggestion of Russian nuclear weapons in Cuba is reminiscent of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis that followed the discovery of Soviet missile bases on the Caribbean island.
The two-week crisis appeared to draw the Cold War to the verge of World War III, as President John F. Kennedy responded to the threat by authorizing a naval blockade of Cuba.
In the end, the Soviets agreed to dismantle the missile sites in exchange for a U.S. non-invasion pledge and a secret deal to remove American missiles from Turkey.
(Reporting by David Morgan; Editing by David Storey)
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2229801920080722
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By ANITA SNOW – 15 hours ago
HAVANA (AP) — Ailing Fidel Castro said Wednesday that Cuba's president was right to adopt a "dignified silence" over a Moscow newspaper report that Russia may send nuclear bombers to the island, and said Cuba doesn't owe any explanation to Washington about the story.
In a brief, cryptic essay posted on a government Web site Wednesday night, the 81-year-old former president neither confirmed nor denied the Monday report in Izvestia newspaper.
Moscow is angry about U.S. plans for missile-defense sites in eastern Europe and Izvestia cited a "highly placed" military aviation source as saying, "While they are deploying the anti-missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, our long-range strategic aircraft already will be landing in Cuba." Izvestia said this apparently refers to long-range nuclear-capable bombers.
Izvestia points out that there would have to be a political decision on landing bombers in Cuba, and quoted the unnamed source as saying there have been such discussions.
In Washington, U.S. State Department Acting Deputy spokesman Gonzalo R. Gallegos said that American officials had received no official confirmation from the Russian government about the newspaper report, and was unaware of any U.S. efforts to directly contact Moscow about it.
"We continue to continue to work with the Russians on this issue," Gallegos said Tuesday, referring to talks aimed at explaining the U.S. government's missile defense plan. "We have consistently made it clear to them that our proposed deployment of a limited missile defense system in Europe poses no threat to them or to their nuclear deterrent."
While Fidel Castro said the president, his brother Raul Castro, was wise not to respond to the newspaper report, he did not make clear why he was commenting.
Fidel Castro also said Cuba is not obligated to offer the United States an explanation about the newspaper report, "nor ask for excuses or forgiveness."
Despite Cuba's one-time alliance with the former Soviet Union, it seems unlikely that Raul Castro would allow Russian bombers on the island and risk the ire of the U.S. government.
Raul Castro has been president only since February, securing a seamless transition from his brother, who ruled for nearly a half-century. He has repeatedly said he is willing to discuss the two countries' differences in talks held on equal terms with America's next president.
Soviet nuclear missiles stationed in Cuba during the height of the Cold War pushed the world to the brink of nuclear conflict on Oct. 22, 1962, after President John F. Kennedy announced their presence to the world. After a tense week of diplomacy, Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev removed them.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gw_g2N1YLMvLFCuCLPrq6LNB1VcQD923UV3G0
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Russia has finally recovered. It has risen from its knees and is ready for the next stage – forcing the rest of the world to their knees. The new concept for Russian foreign policy was presented last week by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Now Russian diplomats can be mobilized to attain that goal.
A constant refrain in the new concept for Russian foreign policy, which was published last week, is that Russia has finally recovered. That claim is repeated no less than ten times in different variations throughout the text of the concept. The second chapter (“The Modern World and Russian Foreign Policy”) begins with a direct statement to that effect: “The new Russia, standing on the firm ground of national interests, has taken a valid place in global affairs.” The authors of the document have invents dozens of phrases synonymous with that one. In their opinion, “Russia exerts substantial influence on the formation of the new architecture of international relations,” “Russia has real potential to occupy a worthy place in the world,” “Russia brings a notable contribution to providing stability to the global economy and finances” and even “Russia will use its potential as a donor to carry out an active and focused policy in the sphere of cooperating in international development.”The new, Medvedev foreign policy concept differs from all previous (Yeltsin 1993, Putin 2000) in that bravura. In 2000, Russian diplomacy protested bitterly that “certain considerations connected with the formation of new equitable, mutually-beneficial relations between Russia and the surrounding world are unjustified.” There are no such complaints now, for the hated unipolar world has practically been done away with. The phrase “great power” is no longer used, since it does not seem to portray the true greatness of the Russian Federation. Eight years ago, it sounded a little plaintive and nostalgic, since it was interspersed between claims of intrigues by enemies and imbalance in the world. There is no more of that either.Medvedev’s new foreign policy concept advances brave new goals appropriate to Russia’s new ambitions. For example, now that the unipolar world has been dispensed with and Russia is a political pole, it will not hide its intentions of fighting for the geographic pole. The topic of developing natural resources in the Arctic is mentioned three times in the concept, and in the most unexpected contexts.Another new phrase in the concept is “energy resources.” Eight years ago, the use of energy for leverage to resolve foreign policy problems was not mentioned at all. Now, the authors of the concept note with satisfaction that “economic interdependence of states will be one of the key factors of support for international stability.” Moreover, according to the document, Russia “will use all the economic leverage and resources at its disposal, and specific advantages, for the protection of its national interests.”As they lay the greatness attained by Russia as the foundation of the concept for its foreign policy, the authors encounter two problems that could impede the implementation of the policy.The first problem the authors of the concept find is that, in spite of the infallibility of the current foreign policy, its implementation leaves something to be desires in places. Medvedev stated that directly last week at the Foreign Ministry.When the president came to the Stalin skyscraper on Smolensk Square to tell the ambassadors about Russia’s growing ambitions, the first thing he noticed is that many of the ardent defenders of Russia’s national interests would not even risk showing themselves in front of his face. A few minutes before he entered the auditorium, Medvedev’s press service discovered a gaping hole: 15 or 20 of the seats right in front of the tribune were empty. They literally begged the diplomats in the balcony to sit closer to the president, but in vain. Only one was willing to make the heroic step. It was seen later that it was too little.The president began the public part of the meeting by saying, “We are counting on your daily active labor and deep understanding and awareness of the problems ours country is facing today. It is extremely important to make an appraisal and sometimes just to stand up for any attempts to guarantee national or group interests in circumvention of and to the detriment of international law.” He said that he was counting on “the active assistance of the Russian Foreign Ministry and all the diplomatic corps.”After the press left, Medvedev gave full vent to his feelings. Several eyewitnesses told Vlast analytical weekly later that they had never seen Medvedev so vehement. “Everything was extremely harsh,” one of the ministers at the meeting said. “He gave a lecture on how to react to attacks on our country. He demanded that they be more independent and aggressive.” Another high-placed source said that “Medvedev told them clearly: your arguments in disputes are international law and the nuclear shield.”Medvedev insisted that the ambassadors answered promptly anyone who dared criticize Russia. “I won’t hide it. He criticized us. But he criticized us on target,” a high-placed diplomat told Vlast. “He complained that we don’t stand up soundly enough to our opponents on Georgia.” Political scientist Vyacheslav Nikonov, grandson of the Soviet commissar for foreign affairs Vyacheslav Molotov, paraphrased Medvedev’s complaints, “There is no cohesiveness. It turns out to be diplomacy with different approaches. The coordination of actions leaves something to be desired. In a normal state, everything is built into a single system. But not in Russia yet.”The Russian Foreign Ministry museum, which Medvedev visited after his speech, could remind of close cohesion. Museum director Yury Khilchevsky told Vlast that not a single Russian head of state had entered the museum before Medvedev. The museum holds such important symbols of foreign policy as Stalin’s pipe, Alexandra Kollontai’s dress and the draft of a speech by Molotov. True, the museum does not have the best-known symbol of foreign policy, Khrushchev’s shoe. The diplomats tried to please the president with fine art. In the foyer of the Foreign Ministry, an exhibition of the works of sculptor Vladimir Surovtsev awaited him with representations of the former glory of Russia: a monument to Gen. Skobelev, a monument to the Varyag, a monument to the leaders of Arctic convoys. The most topical of them was a sculpture of a clown with two little dogs called “Bah! Who Came to Us Today!” Medvedev’s attention was attracted not to it, however, but to a sketch of the Famine (Golodomor) monument that is to appear soon in Moscow. Surovtsev told Vlast that the head of state did not approve of the name of the monument. He preferred something more timely, such as “Requiem for All the Victims of Hunger in Russia and the USSR in the 20th Century.”The second problem the authors of the Russian foreign policy concept faced was the imperfection of the surrounding world and its unwillingness to accept Russia in its new role. That factor does not concern the Russian leadership too deeply, however. They explain that the West’s resistance to the confident advance of Moscow’s new policy is due to its weakness. “The reaction to the prospective loss by the historic West of its monopoly on globalization processes find expression, in particular, in the inertia of the political and psychological attitude of “containing Russia,” the concept assures its reader.The creators of the new foreign policy concept see the solution to the problem in redoing the rest of the world. The document the president signed is full of ideas about how to reform the world to make it more pleasing to Russia.The most ambitious Kremlin project in the new foreign policy concept is replacing the OSCE with an all-embracing European structure. To do so, an all-European summit has to be called and a new agreement on European security signed – obviously to replace the 1972 Helsinki Final Act. All that is said about the OSCE is that it should “voluntarily fulfill the function entrusted to it – as a forum for an equitable dialog of states.”Obviously, the CIS should be remade as well. The concept of eight years ago naively stated that Russia “is attaining good-neighborly relations and strategic partnership in all the countries of the CIS.” But from now on the Russian Federation “is building friendly relations with each of the states of the CIS on the basis of equality, mutual benefit and consideration of each other’s interests.” A vivid example of this is the only mention of Ukraine and Georgia. Moscow promises to continue to fight against their accession to NATO. The creation of a Union State with Belarus is no longer on the list of priorities, while the Eurasian Economic Community, Collective Security Treaty Organization and Shanghai Cooperation Organization have places of honor.There is nothing good in store for NATO either, obviously, since “traditional, cumbersome military-political alliances can no longer counteract the whole specter of modern challenges and threats.” Much is said in the concept about reform of the UN, but it notes that “the status of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council should remain unchanged.”The authors of the new concept excoriates certain forces (without mentioning the United States by name) that resort to unilateral actions that “destabilize the international situation, provoke international tension and the arms race, deepen international disagreements, incite ethnic and religious enmity and create threats to the security of other states.” However, the new concept finally admits that Russia strives to become the new United States and is not above adopting its behavior. The culmination of the new concept can be considered the following passage: “If partners are not prepared for joint action, Russia will be forced to act independently for the protection of national interests, but always based on international law.” That sentence is almost a direct quotation of the speeches of U.S. President George W. Bush from 2002-2003 (in the run-up to the war in Iraq). The current American administration, which has acted independently numerous times, expressed similar loyalty to international law.
Mikhail Zygar, Vladimir Solovyev
http://www.kommersant.com/p913733/r_527/Russian_foreign_policy_international_relations/
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July 24, 2008
Kremlin Rules
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY
MOSCOW — William F. Browder was one of the most prominent foreign investors here, a corporate provocateur who brought the tactics of Wall Street shareholder activists to the free-for-all of post-Soviet capitalism. Until, that is, the Kremlin expelled him in 2005...... "
Until his visa was canceled and he moved his operations to London, Mr. Browder cut a colorful figure in Russia, a foreign version of the Russian oligarchs who earned their fortunes in the mass privatization after the fall of the Soviet Union. He courted publicity, and his background made a good story: he is the grandson of Earl Browder, a leader of the American Communist Party in the 1930s. He often said that, not unlike Russia itself, he rebelled by becoming a capitalist. .
Full story, click active link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/24/world/europe/24kremlin.html?ei=5087&em=&en=ad127988ede541d1&ex=1217044800&pagewanted=print
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CATHY YOUNG
By Cathy Young July 23, 2008
THE LATEST controversy over voting in Russia has nothing to do with rigged presidential or parliamentary elections. In fact, the only political figures involved in this dispute are long dead - and yet they continue to haunt Russia's present. The vote in question is an Internet vote for the greatest Russian in history, sponsored by a program on the state-owned Rossiya television channel. Two historical figures are vying for the top spot: communist dictator and mass murderer Joseph Stalin and Russia's last tsar, Nicholas II, shot by the communists with his wife and children in 1918.
Twelve winners, picked from 50 names selected in the previous round, will be profiled in a TV series and will face a vote by the audience. In this round of the vote, much to the organizers' dismay, two fallen idols of the defunct Soviet regime emerged in the lead. Initially, Stalin was followed by Vladimir Lenin, the leader of the communist revolution, while Nicholas II ranked fourth, after the singer/poet Vladimir Vysotsky. In mid-July, Nicholas briefly surged to first place, then fell to second; on Sunday, Stalin had 441,492 votes to Nicholas's 429,403.
It should be noted that the vote is in no way representative. For one thing, most Russians still have no Internet access. The website also allows unlimited votes from the same computer.
And yet Stalin's dominance cannot be dismissed as a mere spam attack. It is telling that, even after the negative publicity in Russia about the voting results, there has been no massive effort to boost the vote for any liberal candidate (such as scientist/human rights activist Andrei Sakharov). The only pro-democracy figure with a chance to make the top 12 is Boris Yeltsin, currently with about 100,000 votes. Meanwhile, in real polls, 50 to 60 percent of Russians rate Stalin's role in history as mainly positive.
Stalin, in tandem with Hitler, may have been the closest the world ever had to a true devil on earth: a man who sent millions to their deaths before firing squads, in the Gulag camps, or in wastelands where whole families of peasants were deported and who relished sadistic games with victims he knew personally. A poster on the forum of the daily Izvestia noted that, given how many Russians Stalin slaughtered, for Russians to vote for him as the greatest man would be akin to Hitler being awarded that title - not by the Germans, but by the Israelis.
Why, then, is this monster somewhat popular? Partly because he is credited with defeating Nazi Germany in World War II, one of Russia's few genuinely proud achievements in the 20th century. (In fact, Russia's horrific losses in the war can be blamed largely on Stalin's failure to prepare for the German invasion and his prewar purges which decimated the Russian military's officer corps.) Many Russians also see him as the man who turned the Russian state into a leviathan feared around the world - even if it was equally feared by Russians themselves.
Almost as sad is the emergence of Nicholas II - the incompetent ruler whose attempts to hold on to autocracy plunged Russia into revolution - as the main alternative to Stalin. As columnist Leonid Radzikhovsky noted caustically on the liberal EJ.ru website, "What a magnificent Russian choice: a great butcher or a total loser." He also notes that the top three vote-getters - Stalin, Nicholas, and Lenin - are, each in his own way, symbols of an autocratic, paternalistic state.
The high rating of Vysotsky, the poet/singer, has a less obvious symbolic aspect. Vysotsky, who died in 1980 at 42, is the only person in the top 12 associated with protest against official authority - an underground singer shut out by the Soviet cultural establishment in the 1960s and '70s, but worshiped by the public. But his voice of protest belongs to an era in which political resistance was futile; it is the voice of a rebel who can at most express his revulsion and despair at the injustices and humiliations of life around him, but has no hope of changing anything.
As the post-Putin era begins, Russia faces an uncertain future. The "Greatest Russian" vote, however skewed it results may be, suggests that it still remains trapped in the past.
Cathy Young is a contributing editor at Reason magazine.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/07/23/the_greatest_russian/
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German-Russian Baltic Sea Gas Pipeline Delayed
Completion of the controversial Nord Stream gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea is likely to be delayed by one year from 2011 to 2012, a German executive working on the Russian-led project said Wednesday.
"We don't expect the first natural gas to arrive till 2012," said Andreas Hieckmann, the project chief at the Gazprom Germania company.
His comment clashed with a printed news release from Nord Stream, a consortium with Russian, German and Dutch involvement, which stated that 2011 was the target for the first flow.
He was speaking in Waren, north of Berlin, where Gazprom is studying the suitability of a bed of deep rock to store the gas in after it lands.
Nord Stream said it aimed to complete a multinational environmental review of the undersea route by the end of this year.
Unfair advantage?
Sweden has echoed environmentalists who fear the seabed trench for the pipes may kill sea life and stir up toxic material. Poland has led strategic criticism, saying Russia may gain a massive advantage by piping the gas outside the borders of intermediate nations.
Hieckmann said he expected delays because dumped wartime ammunition would have to be recovered from the Baltic seabed before the pipeline is laid and because of the "political friction" in the permissions process.
"Even if the regulatory procedures go according to plan, it will be a complex construction job," he said.
When complete, the line will transport 27.5 billion cubic meters (971 million cubic feet) of gas annually to western Europe. After landing on the German coast, the line will split, with one, codenamed NEL, bound west, and the other, the OPAL, bound south.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3509088,00.html
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Monday, July 21, 2008
U.S. OPEN OF SURFING: Patrick Gudauskas, one-third of a San Clemente brother act, leads his series.
By SHAWN PRICE
The Orange County Register
San Clemente's Patrick Gudauskas, at right, is currently the top surfer on the World Qualifying Series and his brothers, from left, Tanner and Dane are not far behind.
PAUL BERSEBACH, THE ORANGE COUMTY REGISTER
Thisis his moment. This is the week and this is the place where Patrick Gudauskas can put on the jersey, walk through the Huntington Beach crowd and get the looks that only the No. 1 surfer in the world gets on his way to the water.
He doesn't pretend to be Kelly Slater, hurtling toward a ninth world title. He doesn't have to. Gudauskas can relish his moment as the other No. 1.
The San Clemente surfer, one third of the beach-blond and forever smiling Gudauskas brothers, leads the World Qualifying Series heading into this week's Honda U.S. Open of Surfing. At the half way point of the season, barring disaster, he'll likely reach the upper tour – the one Slater surfs on – this December.
He's gone through the learning curve all surfers go through, and he's been close to qualifying before, but not this close.
"It's a ton of different factors," Gudauskas says about his success this year. "It's my third year on tour. Now I know where to stay, what to eat, what boards to bring. Anyone of these guys (on the WQS) can have a great contest, so eliminating luck and negative factors this year has really helped me get my head around this."
Gudauskas has always been buoyed by his most steady travel companions, his brothers Dane and Tanner, who make up the most cohesive sibling unit in surfing, but when a leg injury ended a promising season last fall, it was all about looking deep within.
"I wasn't down and out but I was able to focus. I learned my main problem was not starting well and I put my energy into getting started right this year. A lot of that had to do with being injured and having three months to think. It was a healthy break. Hopefully it will produce good things."
A strong start was exactly what Patrick got, winning the opening event, the Sebastian Inlet Pro in Florida. Then he backed it up with a finals appearance at Lower Trestles in May and a semi-final two weeks ago in South Africa.
And being on top he says has only slightly changed his perspective coming into the U.S. Open or heats in general.
"I don't get nervous until right before heats. I really thrive on make or break heats. Or I like to think I do," Gudauskas says. "Obviously being first you're more of a target. You have to rise above it and stick it to them. But surfing at home I feel more confident. Home cooked meals are liquid gold."
Maintaining that sense of home on the road comes from his brothers, who he fully credits as contributors to his current position.
"They've shaped who I am and how I surf. They've pushed me and I push them. We've been fortunate that are personalities are not conflicting, because when you're in tight quarters half way around the world, personalities matter."
However, Gudauskas realizes his qualification will come with a certain price. He's clearly pondered the idea of being the guy who breaks up the band to – at least temporarily – go solo. "Yoko Ono," he chuckles, making reference to the woman who rightly or wrongly is blamed for breaking up the Beatles.
"There's been some thoughts about that. Dane and Tanner are my best friends. But I wouldn't put it past them to qualify too. In my eyes their surfing is world tour worthy. But I think if I we were to break up the band, they will step up their game," Gudauskas says.
The others agree the bond that has made them strong will only make them stronger if Patrick goes up to the show.
"We can tag along and see the WCT and figure out why we're doing what we're doing." Tanner says. "He is breaking up the band in one sense, but it's an evolutionary step too. I'm glad where we're at now and where we're going to."
Dane likes the challenge it represents. "If anything, it will push us harder. You definitely go through some turbulent times and some great times. But I'm always feeling like my surfing is a direct result of who I'm surfing with. You've got to keep up with the boys."
It seems only appropriate that in Patrick's first heat on Thursday he will face younger brother, Tanner. They've faced each other a few times already and know what to expect.
"He'll surf his heat and I'll surf mine," Patrick says. "We won't worry about each other until the last couple of minutes. If we have to sit on each other they'll be no mercy. Hopefully, we'll be smashing the other guys."Tanner can't wait to show his big brother what he can do. "Honestly, I'd like to beat him now in this heat more than I've ever wanted to beat him."
Contact the writer: 714-796-2329 or sprice@ocregister.com
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/gudauskas-surfing-says-2101036-patrick-world#
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On 19 July, a solemn commemoration of a historical transatlantic flight of Steponas Darius and Stasys Girėnas was held in Floyd Bennet Field, New York City’s former airport. A memorial plaque dedicated to this deed of Lithuanian pilots was unveiled in the Floyd Bennet Field airport’s Ryan visitor centre.
75 years ago, aircraft Lituanica took off from this airport. Currently the Floyd Bennet Field airport is the property of the Gateway National Recreation Area.
At the ceremony, Consul General of the Republic of Lithuania in New York Jonas Paslauskas gave a speech about the fate of S.Darius and S.Girėnas, about Lithuanians in America, who both morally and financially supported the idea of courageous Lithuanian pilots to promote the name of Lithuania by the record flight from New York to Kaunas. 75 later years their wish is coming true – now New Yorkers will also learn more about Lithuania and its heroes.
General Superintendent of the Gateway National Recreation Area Barry Sullivan told about the past of the Floyd Bennet Field airport. Today it is a recreation area, of which New Yorkers are fond of. He opened a new exhibition, which tells the history of the most important flights from the Floyd Bennet Field airport. A separate stand is devoted to the flight of Lituanica by S.Darius and S.Girėnas.
During the commemoration, speeches were also given by Bishop Paulius Baltakis, chairman of the Lithuanian American Community in the New York District Ramutė Žukaitė, President of the Knights of Lithuania Council 110 in Maspeth Paul-Michael Kazas, President of Lithuanian National Foundation Giedrė Kumpikaitė.
The commemoration was organised by the Consulate General in New York and the administration of the Gateway National Recreation Area, in cooperation with the Knights of Lithuania Council 110 in Maspeth and the Lithuanian-American community in the New York District.
http://www.urm.lt/index.php?-1553254993
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Adamkus disturbed by deteriorating Russian relations
Jul 09, 2008By Adam Mullett
President Valdas Adamkus said that Lithuania is increasingly disturbed by the Russian Federation’s views of the Soviet Union and urged “accurate precision” in speaking of the Soviet era during a meeting with the new Russian ambassador Tuesday. Adamkus said that Russia is refusing to acknowledge its involvement with the crimes committed during the Soviet era. “I do not think it is the goal of Russia’s policy to identify with these crimes,” Adamkus said. \
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/20804/
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Jul 23, 2008By TBT staff
VILNIUS - Almost four thousand Lithuanians are forecast to lose their jobs this year, according to Lithuania’s Labor Exchange Office. This is an increase of 30 percent over 2007. The Lithuanian labor force has been warned to brace en masse for an upcoming economic crisis that market research and analysis shows could lead to economic stagnation. Prime People is the unemployment agency that conducted the research.
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/20914/
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24/07/2008 16:36 MOSCOW, July 24 (RIA Novosti) - The European Court of Human Rights has ordered Latvia to pay World War II veteran Vasily Kononov 30,000 euros ($47,000) in damages, the court said on Thursday.
Kononov, 85, had originally demanded 5 million euros ($7.8 million) in compensation for being illegally held in custody by Latvia on charges of war crimes.
The ruling was made on June 19, but was only announced in full on Thursday. The court rejected Kononov's other demands, which included moral damages and compensation for the apartment and plot of land he had been forced to sell in order to pay for court expenses and medical treatment.
Kononov, 84, who led a group of resistance fighters in the Baltic state during WWII, was convicted by Latvian authorities of ordering the killing of nine villagers in 1944, with some reports saying the dead included a pregnant woman.
He admitted the killings, but said the dead were Nazi collaborators, and had been caught in crossfire. The republic was under Nazi occupation at the time of the incident.
A retired police colonel born in Latvia, Kononov was arrested in 1998 and sentenced to six years in prison in 2000 on genocide charges. In 2004, after several years of litigation, his sentence was cut to 20 months in prison and the charges changed to "war crimes." Kononov filed an appeal with the court in Strasbourg the same year.
Russia subsequently brought pressure to bear on Latvian and European authorities over the case, and in April 2004, then-Russian president, Vladimir Putin, granted Kononov Russian citizenship.
In 2007, the European court dropped all charges against Kononov, and ruled he was not guilty.
"This is my final victory, one I have been seeking for eight long years," he said then.
While Russia maintains that the Red Army liberated the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia from Nazi invaders, many local residents fail to distinguish between the Nazi and later Soviet periods.
Kononov's lawyer Mikhail Yoffe said Thursday that Kononov was satisfied with the Strasbourg court's ruling.
http://www.en.rian.ru/world/20080724/114836824.html
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Balts among world’s least ‘happy’
Jul 23, 2008By Talis Saule Archdeacon
RIGA - A recent survey has found that citizens of the Baltic states are some of the unhappiest people in the world. The study, which was conducted by the U.S.-funded World Values Survey organization, ranked Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 84th, 85th and 86th place, respectively. The survey was conducted in a total of 97 countries covering about 90 percent of the world’s population. The Baltic states saw a sharp decline in their happiness rating during the 1990s,
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/20932/
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Huge Crowds at the Song and Dance Festival
Jul 09, 2008By Monika Hanley
FOLKLORE: Ten’s of thousands of dancers and singers paraded down Brivibas Street in Riga in preparation for the Song and Dance FestivalRIGA - Riga was packed as tens of thousands made their way to Mezaparks to attend the opening concert of the 24th Song and 14th Dance Festival on July 6. The number is expected to increase even further as the week’s events move toward the climactic closing concert on July 12. Streets in the city center were devoid of traffic, as it was diverted to side streets for the seven-hour parade of Song and Dance Festival participants.
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/20798/
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Latvia ‘Europe’s crime capital’
Jul 23, 2008By Talis Saule Archdeacon
CRIME FIGHTERS: Despite police efforts, analysts say Latvia is the most lawless country in the EU.
RIGA - Latvia has the highest crime rate in the EU and the second highest in Europe, according to a recent report. In a report titled “Europe’s Crime Capitals,” Forbes business magazine claimed that only Turkey has a higher crime rate than the Baltic state. “The most popular activities for organized crime groups were illegal drug trafficking, criminal vehicle business and economic crimes. With its high rate of alcoholism, Latvia is also the second most dangerous place in Europe to drive .
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/20903/
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http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/20903/
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