The Mazeika Report January 7, 2009
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Geopolitical Diary: The Gaza Offensive and Obama's Presidency
January 5, 2009 0256 GMT
Israel’s military offensive against Hamas in Gaza entered its ninth day on Sunday. Israeli forces moved across the Gaza Strip to the Mediterranean, splitting the territory in two, and began gathering around Gaza City. Though Israel has no intention of reoccupying the territory, Israeli officials have made clear that the operation could intensify and be extended for a considerable time — until they are is satisfied Hamas has been dealt a heavy blow. The situation likely will dominate the headlines for some time, but little will have changed on a geopolitical level when it is over. Even assuming that Israel succeeds in crippling Hamas’ military wing and in restoring some of its own deterrent prowess against irregular forces in the region, Hamas will not be eliminated as either a political or militant force in the territory.
But with the U.S. presidential inauguration just days away, it looks as though the Israeli-Palestinian issue will occupy a good deal of Washington’s attention after President-elect Barack Obama takes office Jan. 20 — even though it pales in comparison to a host of critical matters that will be waiting for Obama to address.
Following the Israeli operation in Gaza, the Palestinian territories will remain more or less divided — politically, territorially, economically and militarily — between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, making the formation of a viable Palestinian state virtually impossible. And Hamas will still be a force in Gaza; the group has extensive social networks in the region and maintains substantial popular support there. Furthermore, Hamas’ rival Fatah is severely internally divided and lacks the ability to impose its influence in Gaza, regardless of how strong or weak Hamas may be. Meanwhile, Israel will continue its policy of divorcing itself from the Palestinian issue, content to have the Palestinians fighting among themselves as long as their militant assets do not threaten Israel proper.
In short, the Gaza operation is not Israel’s end-all offensive against the Palestinians –- merely another chapter in an intractable conflict that will continue to draw the world’s attention from time to time.
The Obama administration faces a number of issues with far more geopolitical significance than the current Israeli offensive. The India-Pakistan crisis is still far from resolved, with officials in New Delhi now in the process of making the case to the international community that elements of the Pakistani state were involved in the Nov. 26 Mumbai attacks. The Indian home minister expected in Washington this week to present evidence on the Pakistani link, and there is no guarantee that Pakistan will be able to evade military action from the Indians unless Islamabad somehow follows through with politically costly demands to purge its intelligence apparatus and crack down on its militant proxies — demands that it may simply lack the capacity to fulfill.
Meanwhile, the situation in Afghanistan shows little sign of improving, as the Taliban continue to strengthen. In Iraq, a number of problems are on the horizon as the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad and Tehran both exploit constraints placed on U.S. forces by the new Status of Forces Agreement to contain Iraq’s Sunni and Kurdish factions. Meanwhile, Russia has cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine — just one of many steps the Kremlin intends to take to secure its influence in its near abroad, at the expense of the United States and its Western allies, while Washington remains preoccupied. All of these foreign policy challenges are unfolding against the backdrop of a global financial crisis that is knocking the wind out of the world’s most active economic hubs.
Obama will have to hit the ground running Jan. 20, but the Gaza situation could slow his administration down in the early phase of his presidency. Whether a cease-fire is negotiated, Hamas is crippled or Israel suffers another symbolic defeat, little will change in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (though any of these outcomes could absorb significant international attention). The effects of a resurgent Russia, a crippling financial contagion or a potential crisis on the Indian subcontinent, however, will be felt long after events in Gaza disappear from the headlines.
http://www.stratfor.com/
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Top 10 Global Risks in 2009
Economic actions by Congress plus key foreign-policy challenges for incoming Obama team
Posted January 5, 2009
Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm, puts the "unintended consequences" of government rescue measures in the current economic crisis at the top of its risk areas to watch for global investors.
"It's not hard to paint a negative outlook as we begin 2009, given the political instabilities that naturally emerge from such a serious global economic downturn. But underlying the market volatility over the coming months will be two important structural forces, an understanding of which should provide useful context for a year with unprecedented levels of political risk," Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer said in a report to clients today.
"First, we'll see more state intervention in the global economy," he said. "Second, that intervention will be both reactive and uncoordinated by a series of local, regional, and national political actors who have decidedly nonglobal (and in many cases nonmarket) views of the cost/benefit equations that attend their policy decisions.
"In short, politics will drive the global economy more directly, and more inefficiently, in the coming year than at any point since World War II."
The following is the summary from Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2009 report:
1. US financial regulation and the rise of Congress: A stronger Congress is likely to be more assertive in driving the U.S. economic policy agenda, with three broad areas to watch: (1) legislative and regulatory changes in the financial industry; (2) direct government involvement/control over economic enterprises; and (3) fiscal policies meant to spur economic growth. The degree to which political populism plays a role in the response to the financial crisis will have a host of unintended consequences.
2. South Asia security: The security environment in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan will deteriorate significantly, and the U.S. and Europe will find themselves more directly involved in conflicts in all three states, with little benefit to show for it by the end of 2009.
3. Iran /Israel: Iran is expected to have the capacity to develop a nuclear bomb (if it so chooses) by the end of the year. While the likelihood of US strikes against Iran has diminished considerably, 2009 is the critical year for conflict (both direct and through proxies) between Iran and Israel.
4. Russia : The challenges of the financial crisis are likely to produce increased social unrest in Russia—with nearly zero state tolerance for dissent. Given that the Barack Obama administration will probably not keep quiet during a crackdown in Russia, relations between Russia and the US, as well as Russia's relations with some European nations, are likely to continue to deteriorate. Russia will be a troublemaker in international affairs, though military intervention in Ukraine or a direct conflict over Georgia, NATO enlargement, and missile defense are unlikely.
5. Iraq : The Iraqi government will face a series of political tests that will determine its ability to keep the country united and move it toward stability. President Obama will face pressure to fulfill his promise to withdraw U.S. combat troops within 16 months, but he may have to revise his timetable. The looming prospects of U.S. withdrawal, combined with provincial and the parliamentary elections, will expose Iraq to high risks of renewed unrest, while the unresolved dispute over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk will remain a source of long-term volatility.
6. Venezuela : President Hugo Chavez's plan for a referendum to reform the constitution and abolish term limits is unlikely to succeed. Faced with defeat, Chavez is likely to take an increasingly authoritarian approach, which will raise social and political turmoil domestically.
7. Mexico : Rising violence and corruption scandals associated with narco-trafficking will continue to raise questions about the government's strategy against organized crime. However, growing public concerns will not affect political stability or the government's increasingly aggressive efforts to weaken the drug cartels.
8. Ukraine : Direct military conflict with Russia is unlikely, but battles between Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko will continue to divide the government and complicate attempts to deal with Ukraine's economic crisis. Growing unemployment, falling wages, and anger at politicians will increase the risk of social unrest in major cities.
9. Turkey : The fight between secularists—in the judiciary, military, and industry—and the Islamists in government is becoming a serious obstacle to economic advancement and Ankara's bid for EU membership.
10. South Africa: The African National Congress is likely to keep a majority in parliament and Jacob Zuma should prevail as the country's next president. Uncertainty over the government's macroeconomic approach, however, may lead to market pessimism, and the outcome of Zuma's corruption case could pose further challenges.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/2009/01/05/top-10-global-risks-in-2009_print.htm
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Important informational link: Combating terrorism Center at West Point
Major institutional resource in the study and monitoring of terrorism at US Army West Point Military Academy, New York.
Tony Mazeika
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Mark Steyn: Gaza has its version of rocket scientists
Westerners seem to expect more civilized behavior from Israel than from its adversaries. Mark Steyn Syndicated columnist http://www.ocregister.com/articles/gaza-israel-think-2272631-hamas-president#slComments
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Estonia clears 'Russian rioters'
An Estonian court has acquitted four ethnic Russians accused of leading riots that shook the capital, Tallinn.
The riots started after the government decided in 2007 to relocate a Soviet-era war memorial, considered a reminder of Soviet occupation by many Estonians.
More than one-third of Estonians are ethnic Russians, who viewed the move to a military cemetery as an insult to Soviet troops killed fighting in WWII.
Public prosecutors said they were likely to appeal against the acquittal.
The four ethnic Russians were cleared of charges including inciting racial hatred and fomenting disorder.
The four accused faced jail terms of up to five years if they were found guilty.
International row
The April 2007 row about moving the statue led to the Russian parliament, the Duma, unanimously condemning what it called the "Neo-Nazi and revanchist mood in Estonia".
Estonian government websites were hit by a cyber-attack that Tallinn blamed on the Kremlin, while Russian nationalists picketed the Estonian embassy in Moscow.
The Estonian foreign ministry said Russia's accusation of "heroising Nazism" was "groundless".
Russia, and many ethnic Russians in Estonia, consider that the monument commemorates those who died to liberate Estonia from Nazi Germany during World War II.
However, the Soviet Union had occupied Estonia before the war, and annexed it again in 1945, so many Estonians regard the statue as a symbol of the country's occupation.
After clashes between ethnic Russian and Estonian activists at the old site of the monument in the centre of Tallinn, the Estonian government decided to move it to a more discreet location at a military cemetery.
Story from BBC NEWS:http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/7811383.stm
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January 7, 2009
Gazprom Dispute Entangles Europe
By DAVID JOLLY and JULIA WERDIGIER
PARIS — Russia’s gas price dispute with Ukraine escalated Tuesday, disrupting deliveries to the European Union in the midst of a bitter cold spell, with a number of countries reporting that gas supplies had been suspended or reduced, and Germany predicting a possible shortage.
Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, the Czech Republic, Austria and other countries including Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey reported that gas supplies had been suspended or reduced after Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, reduced gas shipments through Ukraine.
Aleksandr I. Medvedev, a deputy chief executive of Gazprom, said at a news conference in London that three export pipelines within Ukraine had been shut down early Tuesday morning.
“The flow to Europe through the Ukraine is now about seven times less than the norm and the situation continues to deteriorate,” Mr. Medvedev said. “The Ukraine is in obvious breach of its commitments.”
“We face this challenge together with our European colleagues,” he added. “It’s a question of absolute irresponsibility,” and he called on the European Union to “go after Ukraine.”
Nonetheless, he said, Gazprom is “ready to go to the negotiation table any day, any minute.”
The European Commission and the European Union presidency responded to the Russian move with a statement demanding that “gas supplies be restored immediately to the E.U. and that the two parties resume negotiations at once with a view to a definitive settlement of their bilateral commercial dispute.” They said the E.U. would seek to “intensify the dialogue with both parties so that they can reach an agreement swiftly.”
E.ON Ruhrgas, the German gas company, said its gas supplies via Ukraine at its Waidhaus station had been “massively reduced,” and predicted that deliveries would completely stop in the next few days. E.ON said it would soon be unable to meet demand if supplies were not restored and temperatures remained low.
The Bulgarian Energy Ministry said that its deliveries were suspended early Tuesday, including gas intended for transit to Turkey, Greece and Macedonia. Bulgaria gets the vast majority of its gas from Russia. Bulgarian leaders announced that natural gas supplies would be slashed by two thirds on Tuesday, forcing the nation to rely on reserves in the village of Chiren in central Bulgaria that could last up to two months.
Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev said that the storage facility had reserves of 570 million cubic meters of gas and could provide about 4.5 million cubic meters daily — about a third of the country’s normal consumption.
The Turkish energy minister, Hilmi Guler, on Tuesday told reporters in Ankara that the Russian gas from a pipeline that transits Ukraine had been completely cut. But Turkey is seeking to increase deliveries of Russian gas via a Black Sea pipeline, he said.
In Prague, the Czech pipeline operator RWE Transgas said the flow of gas “delivered by the transit pipe line system through the Ukraine and Slovakia to the Czech republic and other EU countries has dropped significantly.” It said it would increase purchases of Norwegian gas delivered via another pipeline.
The Romanian Economy Ministry also released a statement saying that a pipeline delivering Gazprom gas had been shut down. A second pipeline in the north of the country continues to operate, however.
In Vienna, the Austrian energy company OMV said its supply of Russian gas via Gazprom was down 90 percent Tuesday. Werner Auli, a member of the OMV board said in a statement: “The supply of natural gas to our customers is still secured for the time being.”
In Slovakia, the gas company SPP said in Bratislava that a state of emergency had been called over the situation, and that it might have to restrict gas use by businesses, though households would be protected.
The Polish gas company Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo said in a regulatory statement that its deliveries via Ukraine fell 85 percent and that it would ask big industrial customers to reduce consumption.
Gazprom began reducing deliveries Monday for transit through Ukraine to Western European customers, saying it was seeking to make up for gas stolen by Ukraine. The Gazprom chief executive, Aleksei B. Miller, said in a conversation with Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin broadcast Monday on Russian state television that Gazprom would reduce exports bound for Western Europe through Ukrainian pipes by the same amount that it accused Ukraine of diverting.
Gazprom announced late Monday that it would reduce gas deliveries to the gas transmission system of Ukraine by 65.3 million cubic meters, the amount it says Ukraine removed from its pipelines between Jan. 1 an Jan. 4. Normal volume is closer to 300 million cubic meters.
It said that any countries that suffer shortages as a result should blame Ukraine for not paying a fair price for Russia’s natural gas. Russia and Ukraine, which has a pro-Western government, have been haggling over gas prices for years, in disputes that often carry political overtones. In the current fracas, Ukraine resisted an increase in Russian gas to $250 per 1,000 cubic meters from the current $179.50. Russia then raised the price to $418 for the same volume and again to $450. Oleh Dubina, chief executive of the Ukraine gas company Naftogaz, told journalists in Kiev that he would go to Moscow Thursday to resume talks.
The Russian announcement Monday was, in essence, a partial Russian fuel embargo of Europe, something policy makers in Western capitals have feared for some time as relations with Moscow bottomed out last summer following the war in Georgia.
The announcement took the form of a conversation between Mr. Putin and Mr. Miller during an evening newscast. As they have in the past, the men accused Ukraine of diverting gas from pipelines that send it through Ukraine to Europe, something the Ukrainian government has denied doing.
Mr. Putin asked Mr. Miller how much Ukraine had diverted. About 65.3 million cubic meters of natural gas since Jan. 1, the executive said. “What are you going to do?” Mr. Putin then asked. Mr. Miller responded that he was considering ordering Gazprom to immediately cut exports bound for Western Europe through Ukrainian pipes by this same amount.
He said Gazprom would seek to mitigate shortages by shipping more gas through Belarus and Turkey, and by withdrawing gas from storage. But he suggested that European nations should blame Ukraine for likely deficits of heating fuel. Mr. Putin asked, “How about the supplies to our Western European consumers under long-term contracts?”
Mr. Miller said that Europe would only lack what “Ukraine had stolen.” Mr. Putin then said: “Good, I agree, cut it from today.”
In the days ahead, Mr. Miller added, Gazprom would each day reduce the volume of gas supplied at Ukraine’s border and intended for re-export to Europe by the amount it suspects Ukraine of diverting from the pipelines. Russia diminished the flow of gas to Ukraine on Jan. 1 by about 100 million cubic meters per day. Since then, Russia has accused Ukraine of withdrawing gas from the export pipelines.
Ukraine countered that it was diverting only enough fuel, about 21 million cubic meters, to power compressors. Authorities in Kiev said they were meeting internal demand from reserves and domestic production.
While ostensibly intended to force higher payments on Ukraine, the latest cuts directly affect gas bound for Western markets, something that energy experts said was seemingly designed to drag the European Union into the dispute, forcing it to assume a mediating role, assist Ukraine with payments or face shortages in its member nations’ markets.
In 2006, a similar dispute prompted the European Union to side with Kiev. This time the bloc has urged a swift end to the crisis, but it has so far refused to get involved. “It has to be resolved by the two parties,” said Ferran Tarradellas Espuny, an energy spokesman for the European Commission in Brussels.
The global recession has reduced demand for energy and allowed many countries to salt away stockpiles in national reserves, making any embargo easier to weather than in 2006.
David Jolly reported from Paris, and Julia Werdigier from London. Andrew E. Kramer contributed from Moscow, and Doreen Carvajal from Paris.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/world/europe/07gazprom.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print
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Russia wants warships stationed around the world
Reuters
Sunday, January 4, 2009
MOSCOW: Russia's military leaders approved a plan by the navy on Sunday to station warships permanently in friendly ports across the globe.
Underfunded since the 1991 break up of the Soviet Union, the Russian navy has been reasserting itself over the last year by chasing Somali pirates around the coast of east Africa and steaming across the Atlantic to visit allies in South America.
"The General Staff has given its position on this issue and it fully supports the position of the (Navy's) main committee," deputy chief of staff Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn told RIA Novosti news agency.
A resurgent navy has become central to a strategy for Russia -- which enjoyed a decade of economic revival from 1998 -- to project itself in foreign affairs.
In August a Russian diplomat said the navy was to make more use of a Syrian Mediterranean Sea port. Last month a Russian warship cruised off Cuba after visiting South America for the first time since 1991.
Nogovitsyn said Russia was directly negotiating with foreign governments to station warships at bases around the world permanently, although he declined to give exact details.
"Nobody can predict where problems could flare up," he said. "What we need are permanent bases, but these are very costly. They need to be considered very carefully."
RIA Novosti wrote that the Russian navy was already in negotiations to build a permanent Black Sea Port in the Russia-backed breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia.
(Writing by James Kilner; Editing by Charles Dick)
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=19069482
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BALTIC BRIEFInsight and information for friends of The U.S.-Baltic Foundation
January 6, 2009, Volume 2, Issue Iwww.usbaltic.orgCompiled by Trevor Dane
The Baltics in the News
Architecture and Light- Vilnius Is Reborn As EU Cultural Capital
E-voting pioneer Estonia plans mobile phone ballots
Turkmen Delegation Learns International Information Communication Technologies Experience in Latvia
Libya, Estonia Establish Diplomatic Relations
Lithuania to Buy Shoes for Afghans
USBF at Work
USBF Co-Sponsors Screening of Red Terror on the Amber Coast at Heritage Foundation: The U.S.-Baltic Foundation along with the Embassy of Lithuania, Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation and The Heritage Foundation sponsored a screening of the new film Red Terror on the Amber Coast, this past Monday evening. Introductory remarks were made by Dr. Lee Edwards, Chairman of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation and Lithuanian Ambassador Audrius Bruzga. Following the screening, film writer David O’Rourke and film producer Kenneth Gumbert joined Dr. Edwards and Ambassador Bruzga for a panel discussion.
To purchase copies of the film email: David O’Rourke at dkorop@sbcglobal.net.
USBF Board Of Directors held their annual board meeting on Saturday, December 13 at The Embassy of Estonia. Estonian Ambassador Vaino Reinart welcomed the Board members to the Embassy and discussed the major issues affecting the U.S.- Baltic relationship.
Events
January 9th, 2009, 12pm-1pm: “The Putin Government’s Responses to Increased Xenophobia,” The Woodrow Wilson Center. Click Here for Details
January 13th, 2009, 12pm-1pm: “The Turmoil of Law: Legal Systems in Post-Soviet Space,” Georgetown University. Click Here for Details
January 15th, 2009, 3:30pm-5:30pm: “Youth Movements in Post-Communist Societies: A Model of Nonviolent Resistance,” The Woodrow Wilson Center. Click Here for Details
February 2009: USBF Sponsored panel discussion “President Obama and The Baltics” (details TBD)
Upcoming The Singing Revolution screenings: Wolfville, Nova Scotia Canada, January 21, 2009 Organized by the Toronto International Film Festival Group/Film Circuit. Theater details to come...
For the latest English-language Baltic news on the web, visit The Baltic Times
CLICK HERE to Subscribe to BALTIC BRIEF
Email your news and information to Trevor Dane, or call 202-785-5056
The U.S.- Baltic Foundation in Washington, DC, is a non-political, nongovernmental organization with 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status. Contributions are tax-deductible to the extent allowed by law.
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Lithuania supports EU involvement in solving gas supply to Ukraine
Petras Vaida, BC, Vilnius, 06.01.2009.
It is visible from the information on the progress of events related to gas supply received from Ukraine that the situation is complex, therefore Lithuania supports the idea that the EU should get involved in the solving of this matter, said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Vygaudas Usackas on Monday.
His words were passed to ELTA by Foreign Ministry"s spokesman Rolandas Kacinskas.
As reported, the Russian and Ukrainian gas companies have not reached an agreement yet concerning the gas supply agreement for 2009, because Ukraine disagrees with the new gas prices. On January 1, Russia suspended the supply of gas to Ukraine. On January 4, the Russian gas company Gazprom accused Ukraine that consumers in Europe did not receive 50 million cubic meters of gas due to Ukraine"s fault. Ukraine claims that it is Russia that should be blamed for disarrays and denies having appropriated gas.
"Minister Usackas underlines that it is visible from the information on the progress of events related to gas supply received from Ukraine that the situation is complex, therefore Lithuania supports the idea that the EU should get involved in the solving of this matter," Kacinskas, acting spokesman of the Foreign Ministry, commented to ELTA.
According to the Foreign Ministry spokesman, on 1 January, Foreign Minister Usackas discussed current situation of gas provision to Ukraine with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Ohryzko, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech EU Presidency Karel Schwarzenberg and member of the European Commission Andris Piebalgs. On Monday, conversations on the role of the EU in the argument between Ukraine and Russia are taking place between the EU ambassadors in the EU in Brussels. They will be continued at the meeting of the EU foreign ministers in Prague on January 8.
"Usackas underlines that the active role of the EU in the solving of the argument on gas supply between Russia and Ukraine would comply with the highlights of the EU Eastern Neighborhood and would contribute to the insurance of energy security in the entire of the EU," claimed Kacinskas.
Reviewers underline that the EU member states have a different opinion on the way to react to the argument between Russia and Ukraine.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/energy/?doc=8474&ins_print
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Welcome to Vilnius!
Article By:Marielle Vitureau
Lithuania's capital Vilnius has rung in 2009 as a European Capital of Culture, sharing the title this year with the Austrian city of Linz, with plans for 12 months of concerts, art and multi-media events.
"This puts us back on the European cultural map," says Elona Bajoriniene, events coordinator for the city's special year.
A member of the European Union since 2004, Lithuania was an unwilling Soviet republic until 1990 when it reclaimed its independence and much of its indigenous cultural heritage suppressed by Soviet overlords for half a century.
Founded in the early 14th Century by the Grand Duke Gediminas, Vilnius quickly became a cultural centre in north-eastern Europe, seeing the creation of its university in 1579.
For centuries the city was a meeting point of the Lithuanian, Polish, Russian and Jewish cultures.
With its winding, narrow medieval cobble-stoned streets lined by an impressive mix of Gothic, Renaissance, Baroque and classical-style buildings, in 1994 Vilnius's tourist-magnet old town was declared a UNESCO World Heritage site.
In the year ahead Vilnius promises 900 special events, 60 percent of which will be free of charge and open to the public.
"It's an invitation to rediscover Vilnius," says Bajoriniene.
Organising concerts in a district of Vilnius inhabited by the city's Roma, or gypsies, Augustinas Beinaravicius hopes they will also raise local awareness of and tolerance towards the city's small communities of ethnic minorities.
"I hope that people will become more tolerant towards these kinds of cultural initiatives," he told AFP.
In January a series of concerts is planned paying homage to the celebrated Jewish violinist Jascha Heifetz, born in Vilnius in 1901.
"We want some of the events to become annual ones," says Sandra Adomaviciute, coordinator of several music events, including a street music festival in early May and the Lux festival of light during December, the darkest month of the year.
In June, the National Art Gallery will open an exposition focused on 19th Century Lithuanian composer and painter Mikalojus Konstantinas Ciurlionis (1875-1911) and his contemporaries.
Organisers hope this year's cultural extravaganza will attract three million visitors to Vilnius, population 542 000.
Its tourism and service sectors are expected to boom by at least 15 percent during 2009, a year in which a 4.8-percent contraction of GDP has been predicted after years of robust economic growth.
As the global financial crisis bites, Lithuanian legislators slashed the organising budget for Vilnius culture capital events from 40 to 29 million litas (€11.6- to €7.25-million).
"I hope this year of cultural events will make the outside world get to know our city better," says Sandra, a Vilnius resident who was among the tens of thousands gathered near the city's impressive cathedral to gaze at a spectacular New Year's Eve light show in the night sky by German artist Gert Hof.
"It's a very charming city, with beautiful Baroque architecture and very warm, welcoming locals."
http://travel.iafrica.com/destin/europe/1420923.htm
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Over 5 Million Mobile Phones in Lithuania
The Lithuanian telecoms regulator has published its quarterly update which has revealed that the country passed the 5 million mobile phone subscriber mark by the end of Q3 '08. The total at the end of last September reached 5.012 million - a one percent rise on the 4.96 million at the end of June 2008.
The country had an estimated population of 3.4 million at the end of 2007.
Over the same time frame, the number of landline subscribers dropped by 0.39 percent to 787,752 at the end of September 2008, while the number of internet subscribers grew by 6.9 percent to 671,976.
The total revenues for telecommunication services grew by almost 3 percent compared with the second quarter to LTL 798.1 million (US$1.59 billion) of which, LTL 344.95 million (US$686 million) was attributed to the mobile telecoms market.
http://www.cellular-news.com/story/35359.php
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Ignalina produced over 9.8bn kWh of electricity in 2008
Petras Vaida, BC, Vilnius, 06.01.2009.
The Ignalina nuclear power plant produced 9.862 billion kWh of electricity in 2008 and sold 9.14 billion kWh.
The Ignalina nuclear power plant.
In December alone, the nuclear power plant produced 953 million kWh of electricity and sold 909 million kWh of electricity, reports ELTA.
In 2007, the Ignalina nuclear power plant produced 9.8 billion kWh of electricity and sold 9.4 billion kWh of electricity. Currently the second block of the nuclear power plant operates with the capacity of 1300 megawatts.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/energy/?doc=8486
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Vilnius light show leads 900 events in european culture capital
BC, Vilnius, 05.01.2009.
Vilnius gained the status of European capital of culture in 2009, and the first project of almost 900 was launched as the clock struck midnight on Dec. 31, when the centre of the city burst into laser lights and fireworks, as respectable news service Bloomberg/LETA reported.
German artist Gert Hof fired light shows in the Lithuanian capital's Cathedral Square.
June is the climax, with the opening of a museum of contemporary art, concerts of the London Symphony Orchestra led by Russian conductor Valery Gergiev, and the first International Vilnius Opera Festival. Plans are also going ahead for another new museum designed by Pritzker-winning architect Zaha Hadid.
"This is a chance to put Vilnius back on the map of Europe, as well as the world," Arturas Zuokas, Vilnius mayor from 2000 to 2007, said 'figuratively in an interview.
The city of about 550,000 people shares the Capital of Culture title with Austrias Linz.
Other events under the project include Street Musician Day on May 2, covering everything from rock to classical. In early July, the Millennium Song Festival of local music marks 1,000 years since Lithuania was first mentioned as a state.
As mayor, Zuokas pushed to restore Vilnius's 17th-century old town dominated by Baroque churches, and fostered the growth of a modern financial center. Now, being a a Parliament member from the Liberal and Center Party, he said the budget for the year's cultural events has dropped almost 25% from initial 17 million euros, to 13 million euros ($18.1 million).
"There will be some difficulties to manage the full line-up of events, but we intend to do the maximum possible," said Zuokas, who sits on the Capital of Culture steering committee.
On June 19, the Lithuanian Art Museum opens a branch for contemporary art in a building that once housed a museum about the Bolshevik Revolution.
"Contemporary art has yet to be accepted by the Lithuanian public, which still has strong bonds to traditional culture," said Lolita Jablonskiene, the museum's chief curator. "In 2009, the first generation of people who never knew the USSR will turn 18. Young audiences are usually eager to see contemporary art."
Zuokas is pushing ahead with the design and construction of another museum of contemporary art that may be run jointly with the State Hermitage Museum and Solomon R. Guggenheim Foundation.
In April 2008, Hadid won a competition to design the building. Zuokas said he hopes the Hermitage and Guggenheim will play leading roles. Neither museum has committed, and both are expected to make decisions on participation in the next several months, he said.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/baltic_news/?doc=2312&ins_print
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Flat prices in Lithuania decreased by 25% y-o-y
Danuta Pavilenene, BC, Vilnius, 05.01.2009.
In Lithuania, over the year 2008, prices for flats of old construction (up to 2007) decreased very rapidly – from 10% to 25%.
In Vilnius, the prices for flats went down by 23%, in Kaunas – by 15%, in Klaipeda – by 24%, in Siauliai – by 13%, in Panevezys – by 9%, reports ELTA.
Meanwhile, the prices for new flats dropped in a notably slower manner. Over the last year, in Vilnius, the prices went down by 12%, in Kaunas – by 7%, in Klaipeda – by 11%. It was revealed by the data compiled by the real estate advertising website http://www.kapitalas.com/.
It is highly likely that, over the first six months of this year, the flat prices will continue decreasing to equal the prices of the end of 2005 due to the difficult economic situation, whereas they should not change remarkably over the second half-year.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/real_estate/?doc=8431&ins_print
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Geopolitical Diary: The Gaza Offensive and Obama's Presidency
January 5, 2009 0256 GMT
Israel’s military offensive against Hamas in Gaza entered its ninth day on Sunday. Israeli forces moved across the Gaza Strip to the Mediterranean, splitting the territory in two, and began gathering around Gaza City. Though Israel has no intention of reoccupying the territory, Israeli officials have made clear that the operation could intensify and be extended for a considerable time — until they are is satisfied Hamas has been dealt a heavy blow. The situation likely will dominate the headlines for some time, but little will have changed on a geopolitical level when it is over. Even assuming that Israel succeeds in crippling Hamas’ military wing and in restoring some of its own deterrent prowess against irregular forces in the region, Hamas will not be eliminated as either a political or militant force in the territory.
But with the U.S. presidential inauguration just days away, it looks as though the Israeli-Palestinian issue will occupy a good deal of Washington’s attention after President-elect Barack Obama takes office Jan. 20 — even though it pales in comparison to a host of critical matters that will be waiting for Obama to address.
Following the Israeli operation in Gaza, the Palestinian territories will remain more or less divided — politically, territorially, economically and militarily — between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, making the formation of a viable Palestinian state virtually impossible. And Hamas will still be a force in Gaza; the group has extensive social networks in the region and maintains substantial popular support there. Furthermore, Hamas’ rival Fatah is severely internally divided and lacks the ability to impose its influence in Gaza, regardless of how strong or weak Hamas may be. Meanwhile, Israel will continue its policy of divorcing itself from the Palestinian issue, content to have the Palestinians fighting among themselves as long as their militant assets do not threaten Israel proper.
In short, the Gaza operation is not Israel’s end-all offensive against the Palestinians –- merely another chapter in an intractable conflict that will continue to draw the world’s attention from time to time.
The Obama administration faces a number of issues with far more geopolitical significance than the current Israeli offensive. The India-Pakistan crisis is still far from resolved, with officials in New Delhi now in the process of making the case to the international community that elements of the Pakistani state were involved in the Nov. 26 Mumbai attacks. The Indian home minister expected in Washington this week to present evidence on the Pakistani link, and there is no guarantee that Pakistan will be able to evade military action from the Indians unless Islamabad somehow follows through with politically costly demands to purge its intelligence apparatus and crack down on its militant proxies — demands that it may simply lack the capacity to fulfill.
Meanwhile, the situation in Afghanistan shows little sign of improving, as the Taliban continue to strengthen. In Iraq, a number of problems are on the horizon as the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad and Tehran both exploit constraints placed on U.S. forces by the new Status of Forces Agreement to contain Iraq’s Sunni and Kurdish factions. Meanwhile, Russia has cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine — just one of many steps the Kremlin intends to take to secure its influence in its near abroad, at the expense of the United States and its Western allies, while Washington remains preoccupied. All of these foreign policy challenges are unfolding against the backdrop of a global financial crisis that is knocking the wind out of the world’s most active economic hubs.
Obama will have to hit the ground running Jan. 20, but the Gaza situation could slow his administration down in the early phase of his presidency. Whether a cease-fire is negotiated, Hamas is crippled or Israel suffers another symbolic defeat, little will change in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (though any of these outcomes could absorb significant international attention). The effects of a resurgent Russia, a crippling financial contagion or a potential crisis on the Indian subcontinent, however, will be felt long after events in Gaza disappear from the headlines.
http://www.stratfor.com/
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Top 10 Global Risks in 2009
Economic actions by Congress plus key foreign-policy challenges for incoming Obama team
Posted January 5, 2009
Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm, puts the "unintended consequences" of government rescue measures in the current economic crisis at the top of its risk areas to watch for global investors.
"It's not hard to paint a negative outlook as we begin 2009, given the political instabilities that naturally emerge from such a serious global economic downturn. But underlying the market volatility over the coming months will be two important structural forces, an understanding of which should provide useful context for a year with unprecedented levels of political risk," Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer said in a report to clients today.
"First, we'll see more state intervention in the global economy," he said. "Second, that intervention will be both reactive and uncoordinated by a series of local, regional, and national political actors who have decidedly nonglobal (and in many cases nonmarket) views of the cost/benefit equations that attend their policy decisions.
"In short, politics will drive the global economy more directly, and more inefficiently, in the coming year than at any point since World War II."
The following is the summary from Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2009 report:
1. US financial regulation and the rise of Congress: A stronger Congress is likely to be more assertive in driving the U.S. economic policy agenda, with three broad areas to watch: (1) legislative and regulatory changes in the financial industry; (2) direct government involvement/control over economic enterprises; and (3) fiscal policies meant to spur economic growth. The degree to which political populism plays a role in the response to the financial crisis will have a host of unintended consequences.
2. South Asia security: The security environment in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan will deteriorate significantly, and the U.S. and Europe will find themselves more directly involved in conflicts in all three states, with little benefit to show for it by the end of 2009.
3. Iran /Israel: Iran is expected to have the capacity to develop a nuclear bomb (if it so chooses) by the end of the year. While the likelihood of US strikes against Iran has diminished considerably, 2009 is the critical year for conflict (both direct and through proxies) between Iran and Israel.
4. Russia : The challenges of the financial crisis are likely to produce increased social unrest in Russia—with nearly zero state tolerance for dissent. Given that the Barack Obama administration will probably not keep quiet during a crackdown in Russia, relations between Russia and the US, as well as Russia's relations with some European nations, are likely to continue to deteriorate. Russia will be a troublemaker in international affairs, though military intervention in Ukraine or a direct conflict over Georgia, NATO enlargement, and missile defense are unlikely.
5. Iraq : The Iraqi government will face a series of political tests that will determine its ability to keep the country united and move it toward stability. President Obama will face pressure to fulfill his promise to withdraw U.S. combat troops within 16 months, but he may have to revise his timetable. The looming prospects of U.S. withdrawal, combined with provincial and the parliamentary elections, will expose Iraq to high risks of renewed unrest, while the unresolved dispute over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk will remain a source of long-term volatility.
6. Venezuela : President Hugo Chavez's plan for a referendum to reform the constitution and abolish term limits is unlikely to succeed. Faced with defeat, Chavez is likely to take an increasingly authoritarian approach, which will raise social and political turmoil domestically.
7. Mexico : Rising violence and corruption scandals associated with narco-trafficking will continue to raise questions about the government's strategy against organized crime. However, growing public concerns will not affect political stability or the government's increasingly aggressive efforts to weaken the drug cartels.
8. Ukraine : Direct military conflict with Russia is unlikely, but battles between Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko will continue to divide the government and complicate attempts to deal with Ukraine's economic crisis. Growing unemployment, falling wages, and anger at politicians will increase the risk of social unrest in major cities.
9. Turkey : The fight between secularists—in the judiciary, military, and industry—and the Islamists in government is becoming a serious obstacle to economic advancement and Ankara's bid for EU membership.
10. South Africa: The African National Congress is likely to keep a majority in parliament and Jacob Zuma should prevail as the country's next president. Uncertainty over the government's macroeconomic approach, however, may lead to market pessimism, and the outcome of Zuma's corruption case could pose further challenges.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/2009/01/05/top-10-global-risks-in-2009_print.htm
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Important informational link: Combating terrorism Center at West Point
Major institutional resource in the study and monitoring of terrorism at US Army West Point Military Academy, New York.
Tony Mazeika
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Mark Steyn: Gaza has its version of rocket scientists
Westerners seem to expect more civilized behavior from Israel than from its adversaries. Mark Steyn Syndicated columnist http://www.ocregister.com/articles/gaza-israel-think-2272631-hamas-president#slComments
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Estonia clears 'Russian rioters'
An Estonian court has acquitted four ethnic Russians accused of leading riots that shook the capital, Tallinn.
The riots started after the government decided in 2007 to relocate a Soviet-era war memorial, considered a reminder of Soviet occupation by many Estonians.
More than one-third of Estonians are ethnic Russians, who viewed the move to a military cemetery as an insult to Soviet troops killed fighting in WWII.
Public prosecutors said they were likely to appeal against the acquittal.
The four ethnic Russians were cleared of charges including inciting racial hatred and fomenting disorder.
The four accused faced jail terms of up to five years if they were found guilty.
International row
The April 2007 row about moving the statue led to the Russian parliament, the Duma, unanimously condemning what it called the "Neo-Nazi and revanchist mood in Estonia".
Estonian government websites were hit by a cyber-attack that Tallinn blamed on the Kremlin, while Russian nationalists picketed the Estonian embassy in Moscow.
The Estonian foreign ministry said Russia's accusation of "heroising Nazism" was "groundless".
Russia, and many ethnic Russians in Estonia, consider that the monument commemorates those who died to liberate Estonia from Nazi Germany during World War II.
However, the Soviet Union had occupied Estonia before the war, and annexed it again in 1945, so many Estonians regard the statue as a symbol of the country's occupation.
After clashes between ethnic Russian and Estonian activists at the old site of the monument in the centre of Tallinn, the Estonian government decided to move it to a more discreet location at a military cemetery.
Story from BBC NEWS:http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/7811383.stm
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January 7, 2009
Gazprom Dispute Entangles Europe
By DAVID JOLLY and JULIA WERDIGIER
PARIS — Russia’s gas price dispute with Ukraine escalated Tuesday, disrupting deliveries to the European Union in the midst of a bitter cold spell, with a number of countries reporting that gas supplies had been suspended or reduced, and Germany predicting a possible shortage.
Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, the Czech Republic, Austria and other countries including Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey reported that gas supplies had been suspended or reduced after Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, reduced gas shipments through Ukraine.
Aleksandr I. Medvedev, a deputy chief executive of Gazprom, said at a news conference in London that three export pipelines within Ukraine had been shut down early Tuesday morning.
“The flow to Europe through the Ukraine is now about seven times less than the norm and the situation continues to deteriorate,” Mr. Medvedev said. “The Ukraine is in obvious breach of its commitments.”
“We face this challenge together with our European colleagues,” he added. “It’s a question of absolute irresponsibility,” and he called on the European Union to “go after Ukraine.”
Nonetheless, he said, Gazprom is “ready to go to the negotiation table any day, any minute.”
The European Commission and the European Union presidency responded to the Russian move with a statement demanding that “gas supplies be restored immediately to the E.U. and that the two parties resume negotiations at once with a view to a definitive settlement of their bilateral commercial dispute.” They said the E.U. would seek to “intensify the dialogue with both parties so that they can reach an agreement swiftly.”
E.ON Ruhrgas, the German gas company, said its gas supplies via Ukraine at its Waidhaus station had been “massively reduced,” and predicted that deliveries would completely stop in the next few days. E.ON said it would soon be unable to meet demand if supplies were not restored and temperatures remained low.
The Bulgarian Energy Ministry said that its deliveries were suspended early Tuesday, including gas intended for transit to Turkey, Greece and Macedonia. Bulgaria gets the vast majority of its gas from Russia. Bulgarian leaders announced that natural gas supplies would be slashed by two thirds on Tuesday, forcing the nation to rely on reserves in the village of Chiren in central Bulgaria that could last up to two months.
Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev said that the storage facility had reserves of 570 million cubic meters of gas and could provide about 4.5 million cubic meters daily — about a third of the country’s normal consumption.
The Turkish energy minister, Hilmi Guler, on Tuesday told reporters in Ankara that the Russian gas from a pipeline that transits Ukraine had been completely cut. But Turkey is seeking to increase deliveries of Russian gas via a Black Sea pipeline, he said.
In Prague, the Czech pipeline operator RWE Transgas said the flow of gas “delivered by the transit pipe line system through the Ukraine and Slovakia to the Czech republic and other EU countries has dropped significantly.” It said it would increase purchases of Norwegian gas delivered via another pipeline.
The Romanian Economy Ministry also released a statement saying that a pipeline delivering Gazprom gas had been shut down. A second pipeline in the north of the country continues to operate, however.
In Vienna, the Austrian energy company OMV said its supply of Russian gas via Gazprom was down 90 percent Tuesday. Werner Auli, a member of the OMV board said in a statement: “The supply of natural gas to our customers is still secured for the time being.”
In Slovakia, the gas company SPP said in Bratislava that a state of emergency had been called over the situation, and that it might have to restrict gas use by businesses, though households would be protected.
The Polish gas company Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo said in a regulatory statement that its deliveries via Ukraine fell 85 percent and that it would ask big industrial customers to reduce consumption.
Gazprom began reducing deliveries Monday for transit through Ukraine to Western European customers, saying it was seeking to make up for gas stolen by Ukraine. The Gazprom chief executive, Aleksei B. Miller, said in a conversation with Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin broadcast Monday on Russian state television that Gazprom would reduce exports bound for Western Europe through Ukrainian pipes by the same amount that it accused Ukraine of diverting.
Gazprom announced late Monday that it would reduce gas deliveries to the gas transmission system of Ukraine by 65.3 million cubic meters, the amount it says Ukraine removed from its pipelines between Jan. 1 an Jan. 4. Normal volume is closer to 300 million cubic meters.
It said that any countries that suffer shortages as a result should blame Ukraine for not paying a fair price for Russia’s natural gas. Russia and Ukraine, which has a pro-Western government, have been haggling over gas prices for years, in disputes that often carry political overtones. In the current fracas, Ukraine resisted an increase in Russian gas to $250 per 1,000 cubic meters from the current $179.50. Russia then raised the price to $418 for the same volume and again to $450. Oleh Dubina, chief executive of the Ukraine gas company Naftogaz, told journalists in Kiev that he would go to Moscow Thursday to resume talks.
The Russian announcement Monday was, in essence, a partial Russian fuel embargo of Europe, something policy makers in Western capitals have feared for some time as relations with Moscow bottomed out last summer following the war in Georgia.
The announcement took the form of a conversation between Mr. Putin and Mr. Miller during an evening newscast. As they have in the past, the men accused Ukraine of diverting gas from pipelines that send it through Ukraine to Europe, something the Ukrainian government has denied doing.
Mr. Putin asked Mr. Miller how much Ukraine had diverted. About 65.3 million cubic meters of natural gas since Jan. 1, the executive said. “What are you going to do?” Mr. Putin then asked. Mr. Miller responded that he was considering ordering Gazprom to immediately cut exports bound for Western Europe through Ukrainian pipes by this same amount.
He said Gazprom would seek to mitigate shortages by shipping more gas through Belarus and Turkey, and by withdrawing gas from storage. But he suggested that European nations should blame Ukraine for likely deficits of heating fuel. Mr. Putin asked, “How about the supplies to our Western European consumers under long-term contracts?”
Mr. Miller said that Europe would only lack what “Ukraine had stolen.” Mr. Putin then said: “Good, I agree, cut it from today.”
In the days ahead, Mr. Miller added, Gazprom would each day reduce the volume of gas supplied at Ukraine’s border and intended for re-export to Europe by the amount it suspects Ukraine of diverting from the pipelines. Russia diminished the flow of gas to Ukraine on Jan. 1 by about 100 million cubic meters per day. Since then, Russia has accused Ukraine of withdrawing gas from the export pipelines.
Ukraine countered that it was diverting only enough fuel, about 21 million cubic meters, to power compressors. Authorities in Kiev said they were meeting internal demand from reserves and domestic production.
While ostensibly intended to force higher payments on Ukraine, the latest cuts directly affect gas bound for Western markets, something that energy experts said was seemingly designed to drag the European Union into the dispute, forcing it to assume a mediating role, assist Ukraine with payments or face shortages in its member nations’ markets.
In 2006, a similar dispute prompted the European Union to side with Kiev. This time the bloc has urged a swift end to the crisis, but it has so far refused to get involved. “It has to be resolved by the two parties,” said Ferran Tarradellas Espuny, an energy spokesman for the European Commission in Brussels.
The global recession has reduced demand for energy and allowed many countries to salt away stockpiles in national reserves, making any embargo easier to weather than in 2006.
David Jolly reported from Paris, and Julia Werdigier from London. Andrew E. Kramer contributed from Moscow, and Doreen Carvajal from Paris.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/world/europe/07gazprom.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print
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Russia wants warships stationed around the world
Reuters
Sunday, January 4, 2009
MOSCOW: Russia's military leaders approved a plan by the navy on Sunday to station warships permanently in friendly ports across the globe.
Underfunded since the 1991 break up of the Soviet Union, the Russian navy has been reasserting itself over the last year by chasing Somali pirates around the coast of east Africa and steaming across the Atlantic to visit allies in South America.
"The General Staff has given its position on this issue and it fully supports the position of the (Navy's) main committee," deputy chief of staff Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn told RIA Novosti news agency.
A resurgent navy has become central to a strategy for Russia -- which enjoyed a decade of economic revival from 1998 -- to project itself in foreign affairs.
In August a Russian diplomat said the navy was to make more use of a Syrian Mediterranean Sea port. Last month a Russian warship cruised off Cuba after visiting South America for the first time since 1991.
Nogovitsyn said Russia was directly negotiating with foreign governments to station warships at bases around the world permanently, although he declined to give exact details.
"Nobody can predict where problems could flare up," he said. "What we need are permanent bases, but these are very costly. They need to be considered very carefully."
RIA Novosti wrote that the Russian navy was already in negotiations to build a permanent Black Sea Port in the Russia-backed breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia.
(Writing by James Kilner; Editing by Charles Dick)
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=19069482
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BALTIC BRIEFInsight and information for friends of The U.S.-Baltic Foundation
January 6, 2009, Volume 2, Issue Iwww.usbaltic.orgCompiled by Trevor Dane
The Baltics in the News
Architecture and Light- Vilnius Is Reborn As EU Cultural Capital
E-voting pioneer Estonia plans mobile phone ballots
Turkmen Delegation Learns International Information Communication Technologies Experience in Latvia
Libya, Estonia Establish Diplomatic Relations
Lithuania to Buy Shoes for Afghans
USBF at Work
USBF Co-Sponsors Screening of Red Terror on the Amber Coast at Heritage Foundation: The U.S.-Baltic Foundation along with the Embassy of Lithuania, Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation and The Heritage Foundation sponsored a screening of the new film Red Terror on the Amber Coast, this past Monday evening. Introductory remarks were made by Dr. Lee Edwards, Chairman of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation and Lithuanian Ambassador Audrius Bruzga. Following the screening, film writer David O’Rourke and film producer Kenneth Gumbert joined Dr. Edwards and Ambassador Bruzga for a panel discussion.
To purchase copies of the film email: David O’Rourke at dkorop@sbcglobal.net.
USBF Board Of Directors held their annual board meeting on Saturday, December 13 at The Embassy of Estonia. Estonian Ambassador Vaino Reinart welcomed the Board members to the Embassy and discussed the major issues affecting the U.S.- Baltic relationship.
Events
January 9th, 2009, 12pm-1pm: “The Putin Government’s Responses to Increased Xenophobia,” The Woodrow Wilson Center. Click Here for Details
January 13th, 2009, 12pm-1pm: “The Turmoil of Law: Legal Systems in Post-Soviet Space,” Georgetown University. Click Here for Details
January 15th, 2009, 3:30pm-5:30pm: “Youth Movements in Post-Communist Societies: A Model of Nonviolent Resistance,” The Woodrow Wilson Center. Click Here for Details
February 2009: USBF Sponsored panel discussion “President Obama and The Baltics” (details TBD)
Upcoming The Singing Revolution screenings: Wolfville, Nova Scotia Canada, January 21, 2009 Organized by the Toronto International Film Festival Group/Film Circuit. Theater details to come...
For the latest English-language Baltic news on the web, visit The Baltic Times
CLICK HERE to Subscribe to BALTIC BRIEF
Email your news and information to Trevor Dane, or call 202-785-5056
The U.S.- Baltic Foundation in Washington, DC, is a non-political, nongovernmental organization with 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status. Contributions are tax-deductible to the extent allowed by law.
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Lithuania supports EU involvement in solving gas supply to Ukraine
Petras Vaida, BC, Vilnius, 06.01.2009.
It is visible from the information on the progress of events related to gas supply received from Ukraine that the situation is complex, therefore Lithuania supports the idea that the EU should get involved in the solving of this matter, said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Vygaudas Usackas on Monday.
His words were passed to ELTA by Foreign Ministry"s spokesman Rolandas Kacinskas.
As reported, the Russian and Ukrainian gas companies have not reached an agreement yet concerning the gas supply agreement for 2009, because Ukraine disagrees with the new gas prices. On January 1, Russia suspended the supply of gas to Ukraine. On January 4, the Russian gas company Gazprom accused Ukraine that consumers in Europe did not receive 50 million cubic meters of gas due to Ukraine"s fault. Ukraine claims that it is Russia that should be blamed for disarrays and denies having appropriated gas.
"Minister Usackas underlines that it is visible from the information on the progress of events related to gas supply received from Ukraine that the situation is complex, therefore Lithuania supports the idea that the EU should get involved in the solving of this matter," Kacinskas, acting spokesman of the Foreign Ministry, commented to ELTA.
According to the Foreign Ministry spokesman, on 1 January, Foreign Minister Usackas discussed current situation of gas provision to Ukraine with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Ohryzko, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech EU Presidency Karel Schwarzenberg and member of the European Commission Andris Piebalgs. On Monday, conversations on the role of the EU in the argument between Ukraine and Russia are taking place between the EU ambassadors in the EU in Brussels. They will be continued at the meeting of the EU foreign ministers in Prague on January 8.
"Usackas underlines that the active role of the EU in the solving of the argument on gas supply between Russia and Ukraine would comply with the highlights of the EU Eastern Neighborhood and would contribute to the insurance of energy security in the entire of the EU," claimed Kacinskas.
Reviewers underline that the EU member states have a different opinion on the way to react to the argument between Russia and Ukraine.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/energy/?doc=8474&ins_print
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Welcome to Vilnius!
Article By:Marielle Vitureau
Lithuania's capital Vilnius has rung in 2009 as a European Capital of Culture, sharing the title this year with the Austrian city of Linz, with plans for 12 months of concerts, art and multi-media events.
"This puts us back on the European cultural map," says Elona Bajoriniene, events coordinator for the city's special year.
A member of the European Union since 2004, Lithuania was an unwilling Soviet republic until 1990 when it reclaimed its independence and much of its indigenous cultural heritage suppressed by Soviet overlords for half a century.
Founded in the early 14th Century by the Grand Duke Gediminas, Vilnius quickly became a cultural centre in north-eastern Europe, seeing the creation of its university in 1579.
For centuries the city was a meeting point of the Lithuanian, Polish, Russian and Jewish cultures.
With its winding, narrow medieval cobble-stoned streets lined by an impressive mix of Gothic, Renaissance, Baroque and classical-style buildings, in 1994 Vilnius's tourist-magnet old town was declared a UNESCO World Heritage site.
In the year ahead Vilnius promises 900 special events, 60 percent of which will be free of charge and open to the public.
"It's an invitation to rediscover Vilnius," says Bajoriniene.
Organising concerts in a district of Vilnius inhabited by the city's Roma, or gypsies, Augustinas Beinaravicius hopes they will also raise local awareness of and tolerance towards the city's small communities of ethnic minorities.
"I hope that people will become more tolerant towards these kinds of cultural initiatives," he told AFP.
In January a series of concerts is planned paying homage to the celebrated Jewish violinist Jascha Heifetz, born in Vilnius in 1901.
"We want some of the events to become annual ones," says Sandra Adomaviciute, coordinator of several music events, including a street music festival in early May and the Lux festival of light during December, the darkest month of the year.
In June, the National Art Gallery will open an exposition focused on 19th Century Lithuanian composer and painter Mikalojus Konstantinas Ciurlionis (1875-1911) and his contemporaries.
Organisers hope this year's cultural extravaganza will attract three million visitors to Vilnius, population 542 000.
Its tourism and service sectors are expected to boom by at least 15 percent during 2009, a year in which a 4.8-percent contraction of GDP has been predicted after years of robust economic growth.
As the global financial crisis bites, Lithuanian legislators slashed the organising budget for Vilnius culture capital events from 40 to 29 million litas (€11.6- to €7.25-million).
"I hope this year of cultural events will make the outside world get to know our city better," says Sandra, a Vilnius resident who was among the tens of thousands gathered near the city's impressive cathedral to gaze at a spectacular New Year's Eve light show in the night sky by German artist Gert Hof.
"It's a very charming city, with beautiful Baroque architecture and very warm, welcoming locals."
http://travel.iafrica.com/destin/europe/1420923.htm
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Over 5 Million Mobile Phones in Lithuania
The Lithuanian telecoms regulator has published its quarterly update which has revealed that the country passed the 5 million mobile phone subscriber mark by the end of Q3 '08. The total at the end of last September reached 5.012 million - a one percent rise on the 4.96 million at the end of June 2008.
The country had an estimated population of 3.4 million at the end of 2007.
Over the same time frame, the number of landline subscribers dropped by 0.39 percent to 787,752 at the end of September 2008, while the number of internet subscribers grew by 6.9 percent to 671,976.
The total revenues for telecommunication services grew by almost 3 percent compared with the second quarter to LTL 798.1 million (US$1.59 billion) of which, LTL 344.95 million (US$686 million) was attributed to the mobile telecoms market.
http://www.cellular-news.com/story/35359.php
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Ignalina produced over 9.8bn kWh of electricity in 2008
Petras Vaida, BC, Vilnius, 06.01.2009.
The Ignalina nuclear power plant produced 9.862 billion kWh of electricity in 2008 and sold 9.14 billion kWh.
The Ignalina nuclear power plant.
In December alone, the nuclear power plant produced 953 million kWh of electricity and sold 909 million kWh of electricity, reports ELTA.
In 2007, the Ignalina nuclear power plant produced 9.8 billion kWh of electricity and sold 9.4 billion kWh of electricity. Currently the second block of the nuclear power plant operates with the capacity of 1300 megawatts.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/energy/?doc=8486
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Vilnius light show leads 900 events in european culture capital
BC, Vilnius, 05.01.2009.
Vilnius gained the status of European capital of culture in 2009, and the first project of almost 900 was launched as the clock struck midnight on Dec. 31, when the centre of the city burst into laser lights and fireworks, as respectable news service Bloomberg/LETA reported.
German artist Gert Hof fired light shows in the Lithuanian capital's Cathedral Square.
June is the climax, with the opening of a museum of contemporary art, concerts of the London Symphony Orchestra led by Russian conductor Valery Gergiev, and the first International Vilnius Opera Festival. Plans are also going ahead for another new museum designed by Pritzker-winning architect Zaha Hadid.
"This is a chance to put Vilnius back on the map of Europe, as well as the world," Arturas Zuokas, Vilnius mayor from 2000 to 2007, said 'figuratively in an interview.
The city of about 550,000 people shares the Capital of Culture title with Austrias Linz.
Other events under the project include Street Musician Day on May 2, covering everything from rock to classical. In early July, the Millennium Song Festival of local music marks 1,000 years since Lithuania was first mentioned as a state.
As mayor, Zuokas pushed to restore Vilnius's 17th-century old town dominated by Baroque churches, and fostered the growth of a modern financial center. Now, being a a Parliament member from the Liberal and Center Party, he said the budget for the year's cultural events has dropped almost 25% from initial 17 million euros, to 13 million euros ($18.1 million).
"There will be some difficulties to manage the full line-up of events, but we intend to do the maximum possible," said Zuokas, who sits on the Capital of Culture steering committee.
On June 19, the Lithuanian Art Museum opens a branch for contemporary art in a building that once housed a museum about the Bolshevik Revolution.
"Contemporary art has yet to be accepted by the Lithuanian public, which still has strong bonds to traditional culture," said Lolita Jablonskiene, the museum's chief curator. "In 2009, the first generation of people who never knew the USSR will turn 18. Young audiences are usually eager to see contemporary art."
Zuokas is pushing ahead with the design and construction of another museum of contemporary art that may be run jointly with the State Hermitage Museum and Solomon R. Guggenheim Foundation.
In April 2008, Hadid won a competition to design the building. Zuokas said he hopes the Hermitage and Guggenheim will play leading roles. Neither museum has committed, and both are expected to make decisions on participation in the next several months, he said.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/baltic_news/?doc=2312&ins_print
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Flat prices in Lithuania decreased by 25% y-o-y
Danuta Pavilenene, BC, Vilnius, 05.01.2009.
In Lithuania, over the year 2008, prices for flats of old construction (up to 2007) decreased very rapidly – from 10% to 25%.
In Vilnius, the prices for flats went down by 23%, in Kaunas – by 15%, in Klaipeda – by 24%, in Siauliai – by 13%, in Panevezys – by 9%, reports ELTA.
Meanwhile, the prices for new flats dropped in a notably slower manner. Over the last year, in Vilnius, the prices went down by 12%, in Kaunas – by 7%, in Klaipeda – by 11%. It was revealed by the data compiled by the real estate advertising website http://www.kapitalas.com/.
It is highly likely that, over the first six months of this year, the flat prices will continue decreasing to equal the prices of the end of 2005 due to the difficult economic situation, whereas they should not change remarkably over the second half-year.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/real_estate/?doc=8431&ins_print
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