Baltic Blog......Security & Intelligence Briefs, International, Baltic & Russia News July 4, 2008

The Mazeika Report
July 4, 2008

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Have a Safe & Happy 4th of July!


One Nation No More?Civics Needs a Boost, but Our Identity Endures
By David S. BroderThursday, July 3, 2008; A17
Washington Post
Just in time for Independence Day, a conservative think tank has delivered a controversial report asking whether America's national identity is eroding under the pressure of population diversity and educational slackness.
The threat outlined by the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation in its report, "E Pluribus Unum," strikes me as a bit exaggerated. But with Barack Obama and John McCain debating the "patriotism issue," having a coherent discussion of this matter -- and this short pamphlet is admirably written and well-researched -- is a useful contribution.
The takeoff point for the argument is an observation about the uniqueness of America that was made by Thomas Jefferson -- and by myriad other worthies in the centuries since. They all have drawn attention to the fact that the national identity of America, unlike that of other countries, rests "not on a common ethnicity, but on a set of ideas."
And so, the Bradley scholars say, "knowing what America stands for is not a genetic inheritance. It must be learned, both by the next generation and by those who come to this country. In this way, a nation founded on an idea is inherently fragile."
The ideas that define this country are found in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, as amplified by Supreme Court decisions and statutes in subsequent years. Those ideas have been tested in crisis and in war, and the leaders who steered the nation through those testing times are the heroes whose legacy we celebrate -- Washington, Lincoln, the two Roosevelts.
What disturbs the Bradley scholars is evidence that our generation is failing to educate the next one on the essentials of the American experiment. "On the 2006 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) Civics Test," the report notes, "the majority of eighth graders could not explain the purpose of the Declaration of Independence. Only 5 percent of seniors could accurately describe the way presidential power can be checked by Congress and the Supreme Court." The authors also decry the fact that most colleges and universities allow students to graduate without ever taking a comprehensive course in American history and government.
On this point, I think they have plenty of company -- all across the political spectrum. But they have many other criticisms and a variety of suggestions. Some are trivial, such as scrapping Presidents' Day and bringing back Washington's and Lincoln's birthday holidays. Others are far-reaching and controversial, such as telling all colleges and universities to open their campuses to the ROTC.
When it comes to the treatment of immigrants, the Bradley team sees a real threat in such things as multilingual ballots and bilingual classes. Such accommodations to the growing diversity of the population could lead to "many Americas, or even no America at all," they maintain. "Historical ignorance, civic neglect and social fragmentation might achieve what a foreign invader could not."
That degree of pessimism seems unwarranted. The authorities quoted in this report, most of them drawn from conservative academia, manage to overlook the evidence that there is still plenty of vitality in the American system.
Young people may not know the Constitution as well as we would like, but they found their way to polling places in record numbers this year and joined enthusiastically in many campaigns. And they volunteer for all kinds of good works in their communities.
I have not worried about the fundamental commitment of the American people since 1974. In that year, they were confronted with the stunning evidence that their president had conducted a criminal conspiracy out of the Oval Office. In response, the American people reminded Richard Nixon, the man they had just recently reelected overwhelmingly, that in this country, no one, not even the president, is above the law. They required him to yield his office.
That is not the sign of a nation that has lost its sense of values or forgotten the principles on which this system rests. And that is something worth celebrating on more than the Fourth of July.
davidbroder@washpost.com
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The Enemy Detainee MessJuly 3, 2008; Page A10
Wall Street Journal
Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy has departed for summer vacation, but what a mess he's left behind, especially for the U.S. military. His 5-4 decision requiring habeas corpus review for foreign terrorists is already creating confusion and problems about how to handle these dangerous enemies.
The Bush Administration is currently debating how to respond to Mr. Kennedy's war-fighting ukase in Boumediene v. Bush, with President Bush set to make a decision soon. Some in the Administration want Mr. Bush to abolish not merely Guantanamo but even military commissions, the special tribunals set up to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and others for their war crimes. This would compound the mistake of Boumediene, and do away with what has long been a useful tool of military justice.
It is already clear to nearly everyone in the Administration that it will be impossible for the U.S. to hold most detainees from now on. That's true not merely at Gitmo, but even in Afghanistan, Iraq and other foreign battlefields. Earlier this month, lawyers filed a lawsuit on behalf of a detainee held at the U.S. military prison at Bagram air base near Kabul. It's only a matter of time before suits are filed demanding habeas writs for anyone captured and held by GIs for any length of time anywhere in the world.
Regrettably, the Administration will now have to let most enemy fighters go. The burden of gathering enough evidence to meet the habeas standards of U.S. federal courts is simply too great under battlefield conditions – and in any case is far too dangerous. This week a panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the enemy combatant status of a Gitmo detainee captured after training in al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan. The press has reported this as if the Bush Administration had invented a case against an innocent shepherd. But the truth is that in the fog of battle it is impossible to gather evidence the way a Manhattan cop can. There's no "CSI: Kandahar."
While GIs gathered shell casings or interviewed witnesses to meet a U.S. judge's habeas standard, they would leave themselves open to counterattack or sniper fire. No commander – and no Commander in Chief – can ask his troops to put themselves in danger to satisfy Justice Kennedy's legal afflatus. This is what Justice Antonin Scalia meant when he wrote that Americans will die as a result of Boumediene.
Justice Kennedy won't want to hear this, but this means that some enemy combatants will be shot on the battlefield rather than captured. Most who are captured will be interrogated for a brief time and released. Some will be set free entirely, while others will be handed over to the tender mercies of our allies on the ground in Iraq or Afghanistan.
The U.S. will still require some kind of detention for the worst combatants – such as KSM, and others we will want to put on trial. But if Gitmo is no longer a prison, some U.S. domestic prison will have to house these men while they await a habeas hearing and trial. If a habeas court finds the evidence against them unpersuasive, they can then be held only for six months under immigration law before they are deported. If no country will accept them, the possibility exists that they will be released here. It will be fascinating to watch the Congressfolk who cheered Boumediene now saying "not in my backyard." What does Pat Leahy think about a Vermont destination?
That still leaves the issue of trials for those who are found to be enemy combatants. The State Department is arguing that Mr. Bush should now cashier the entire post-9/11 system, including Gitmo and military commissions. The argument is that the U.S. will get no diplomatic benefit from refusing to hold future detainees as long as the commissions continue. In any case, State's legal sages say, the Supreme Court will eventually declare military commissions unconstitutional too.
But we doubt even Justice Kennedy would disallow commissions, which have existed throughout American history. After the Civil War, they were even used against the KKK's attempts to defeat Reconstruction of the South. After six long years, about 20 enemy combatants (including KSM) are now set for the tribunals, and multiple trials are under way. If Mr. Bush shuts down the commissions at this late date, the military justice process would have to start over.
It would insult the 9/11 families if justice for KSM and the others who planned those attacks is delayed once again. Assuming they are convicted, they will have the right of appeal. But would five Supreme Court Justices really set free the men who plotted the murders of 3,000 Americans? As for diplomacy, those who dislike America won't bother to distinguish between military commissions and courts martial. They'll find any military trials unfair.
The killers of 9/11 need to be put on trial, and soon. Americans need to hear them revel in their jihad, boasting that they would kill again if they get the chance. Justice Kennedy needs to hear it too.

URL for this article:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121504362668624767.html
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U.S., Poland strike missile deal while Russia objects
Story Highlights
Tentative deal made to place part of a ballistic missile defense system in Poland
Poland's political establishment still has to sign off on the agreement
Anti-missile system may blunt Russia's nuclear deterrent
U.S. says system's intent is to protect Europe from possible Mideast attack
From Elise LabottCNN
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The United States and Poland have reached a tentative deal to place part of a ballistic missile defense system on its territory, a plan that has drawn sharp objections from Russia, a senior administration official said Wednesday.
Poland's political establishment still has to sign off on the deal and determine the next steps, the official said.
The agreement came after several days of negotiations and less than a week before a planned visit by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
The Bush administration has long pushed to base missile interceptors in Poland. The interceptor rockets would be linked to an air-defense radar system in the Czech Republic, where officials agreed in April to take part in the system.
The interceptors in the Czech Republic could identify and shoot down missiles fired by Iran at Europe or the United States. Russia fervently opposes basing the interceptors right across its border and says the system's real target would be Russian missiles, according to Time magazine.
The Czech Republic and Poland are former Soviet satellites, now members of the U.S.-led NATO alliance.
The United States has said the system is intended to defend Europe from a possible missile attack from the Middle East.
There was no immediate response from Moscow about the deal. But Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried said the United States has taken to heart Polish concerns over more U.S. cooperation with Russia and NATO on the missile defense shield.
The United States has also agreed to help Poland modernize its military, which it requested as a condition of its support for housing the missile defense system.
Fried told reporters earlier that Polish negotiators were tough and came to the table with "serious suggestions and positions," but that the U.S. was "quite satisfied" with the status of the negotiations.
Fried called Poland a "magnificent ally" who has sent troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. He said the talks have been "strenuous" but that the United States understood that this was important to Poland.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/07/02/missile.defense.poland/
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Secret Russian weapons stash found near borderRussian border guards reportedly found a weapon depot this week that even they didn't know about, on Russia's side of its northern border to Norway.
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The depot contained two "Osa" type missiles and a 76mm bomb at the site near Liinakhamary, just three kilometers (less than two miles) from the Russian-Norwegian border. Electronic detonators were also said to have been found at the site.
The weapons, according to BarentsObserver.com’s version of a Russian report on Russian web site Newsru.com,were found on Tuesday and were destroyed by the Federal Security service of the Russian Federation (FSB). The FSB is responsible for internal security within Russia, including border security.
FSB officials in Murmansk told Newsru.com that they did not know why the missiles were on the site or who put them there. An investigation was underway.
The Osa guided missiles have been produced since the early 1960s. A Norwegian military spokesman said the missiles probably came from a naval base in the area that was shut down a few years ago.
"This is really a maritime weapon, probably used on several of their vessels at the naval base," said Kjetil Eide of the military.
Others at the military research institute FFI criticized the apparent lack of control over weapons, especially near the border. "Missiles shouldn't just be left lying around" said Jan Erik Torp told Aftenposten.no, but he added that the discovery wasn't all that dramatic.
"This is probably old equipment, and unusable," Torp said. He said the OSA missile found had a range of only 15 kilometers and was "very ordinary."
BarentsObserver.com describes itself as "an open Internet news service," offering daily updated news from and about the Barents Region. The project is run by the Norwegian Barents Secretariat in Kirkenes, which long has been affiliated with the Norwegian Foreign Ministry and has invested nearly NOK 350 million in the region since 1993, through more than 3,000 grants and cooperating programs.
The Barents Secretariat is now run by the Norwegian counties of Finnmark, Troms and Nordland.
Aftenposten English Web DeskNina Berglund
http://www.aftenposten.no/english/local/article2520028.ece?service=print
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Medvedev: Russia is not leaving the G-8
By JIM HEINTZ – 8 hours ago
MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says suggestions that the country be thrown out of the Group of Eight can't be taken seriously.
Sen. John McCain, the Republican Party's presidential candidate, has called for Russia to be booted from the group of the world's eight leading industrialized democracies.
But Medvedev said: "It's completely obvious that any kind of thesis about the exclusion of Russia appears simply unserious. The world 'eight' exists not because someone likes it or dislikes it, but because it is objectively the largest economies and the most serious in terms of foreign politics."
Medvedev spoke to G-8 media representatives ahead of next week's summit in Japan. The interview transcript was released by the Kremlin on Thursday.
The trip comes two months after Medvedev was inaugurated, replacing Vladimir Putin who is now prime minister. Yet with Putin remaining in a powerful position, there is wide uncertainty about who is running the country.
In the interview, Medvedev also reiterated his determination to fight Russia's endemic corruption, which he has made the focus of his first months in office. On Wednesday, he outlined an ambitious plan to combat corruption, which he said has become a "way of life" in Russia.
Medvedev said the plan includes tougher criminal punishment for corrupt officials, more rigid requirements for civil servants and judges and stronger controls by civil society. He said the new legislation must be in place by next year.
Combating graft should be a "matter of honor" for the government, he said.
The Russian president also said he will continue the policies established by Putin over the past eight years, but indicated he will aim for a different style than his often caustic and confrontational predecessor.
"The accents in domestic and foreign politics certainly will change. ... Every politician, every president, has his own style. Otherwise, people wouldn't be able to tell them apart and it would be boring," he told the journalists.
One of the strongest international criticisms of Russia under Putin — and the core of McCain's belief that Russia should be out of the G-8 — is that the Kremlin has stifled opposition and democracy.
Medvedev said he supports competitive politics, "but it must be rational. This is competition built on the basis of law."
"The system that was built on one party having the right to truth showed its weakness 20 years ago," he said, referring to deterioration of the Soviet Union.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hoRKoGZKUyZZz5XiKjqWI41LqJDgD91M9J4O0
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The Moscow Times » Issue 3936 » Frontpage Top
addthis_pub = 'ruslanTMT';




Why the Kremlin Is So Scared of Ukraine03 July 2008By Andrei PiontkovskyRussia and the West are losing each other yet again. The magnetic attraction and repulsion between the two has been going on for centuries. Indeed, historians have counted as many as 25 of these cycles since the reign of Tsar Ivan III. In the past, however, the Kremlin's sharp anti-Western turns were reversed -- usually out of simple necessity -- after relations reached rock bottom. Not this time. On the contrary, the current deterioration of the relationship has developed a momentum of its own. There are four reasons for this. First, the Russia's "defeat" in the Cold War -- and its loss of imperial and superpower status -- has created a deep and so far unresolved crisis in the collective mentality of the country's political class. Russian leaders continue to perceive the West as a phantom enemy, in opposition to which all the traditional mythologies of Russian foreign policy are being resurrected. Second, by the end of Vladimir Putin's second term as president, Russia's modernizing dreams had been shattered. Modernization, indeed, simply turned out to be yet another redistribution of property to those on top, particularly those who came out of the St. Petersburg Mayor's Office and the Federal Security Service The image of the West as an enemy has become the only ideological excuse for Putin's model of the corporate state. Third, the soaring price of oil has made the Kremlin believe that it is all-powerful. Today's Russia, which thinks of itself as a "great energy state," now laughs at the modest goal it declared before the oil boom -- of catching up with tiny Portugal in terms of living standards. Finally, a series of Western mistakes and misfortunes, a crisis in trans-Atlantic relations, a lack of leadership, and the growing threat of Islamic fundamentalism (in both the Middle East and Europe) have led Russian leaders to believe that the West is a sinking ship, to be abandoned as soon as possible. While this belief unfortunately does have some validity, there is one problem: Russia is part of that ship. Moscow can make advances to Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, and it can remind the Arab world that the Soviet Union helped it develop and offered it protection in the United Nations Security Council. But in the eyes of most Islamic extremists, Russia is part of that same "Satanic" West -- indeed, its most vulnerable part. Therefore, it is Russia, with the soaring birth rate among its Muslim citizens, that is the most attractive country for expansion and takeover. But Moscow's self-destructive confrontation with the West can be halted, and its centuries-old debate between Westernizers and the Slavophiles can be put to rest once and for all. This, however, will depend on Ukraine's success on the path of European development it chose in the Orange Revolution of 2004 and 2005. Ukraine does present a threat, but not to Russia's security, as Kremlin propagandists claim. The real threat is to the Putin model of a corporate, authoritarian state, unfriendly to the West. For the Kremlin it is a matter of life and death that countries that were once part of the Soviet Union but chose a different model of development -- Ukraine being the chief example -- should never become attractive to ordinary Russians. The example posed by the Baltic nations does not threaten the Kremlin much because they are perceived as foreigners. Indeed, in Soviet films, Baltic actors were usually cast in the roles of Nazi generals and U.S. spies. Ukrainians, on the other hand, are close to us in their culture and mentality. If they made a different choice, why can't we do the same? Ukraine's success will mark the political death of Putinism -- the squalid and bankrupt philosophy of "KGB capitalists." If Ukraine succeeds in its European choice, if it is able to make it work, it can settle the question that has bedeviled Russian culture for centuries -- Russia or the West? So the best way to help Russia today is to support Ukraine's claim that it belongs to Europe and its institutions. This will influence the Kremlin's political mentality more than anything else. If the Kremlin's anti-Western paranoia continues and its Eurasian fantasy of allying with China lasts another 10 to 15 years, Russia will end up seeing China swallowing its Far East and Siberia. Indeed, the weakened Russia that will be Putin's legacy will then also lose the Northern Caucasus and the Volga region to their growing Muslim populations. The remaining lands would then have no other choice but to attach themselves to Ukraine, which should by then have become a successful member of the European Union. After 1,000 years, Russia will have come full circle, returning to Kievan Rus after wandering on the roads of the Mongol hordes, the Russian Empire, Soviet communism and farcical Putinism. Andrei Piontkovsky is a visiting fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington. © Project Syndicate
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/articles/detail.php?ID=368718&print=Y
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Lithuania hosted in Utena the Senior age level (15-16) tournament for theEurope, Middle East and Africa regional tournament. In an amazingaccomplishment, the Lithuanians won the tournament, defeating Germany in thechampionship game. This means that the Lithuanians will be returning for thesecond time, back to back years, to Bangor Maine for the Senior WorldSeries. Most if not all the kids on the team are the kids that were with ushere in Orange County three years ago, I am sure you are as thrilled as I amfor one and all.Not sure how many Lithuanians there are in the Northeast, but if any can getto Bangor Maine August 10-16th know their support will be great appreciated
website is www.littleleague.org click on world series, then click onbaseball seniors. dates are the 10th thru 16th of August in Bangor MaineSam GriffithDirector of SaleseScrip, Inc.28182 CoulterMission Viejo, Ca 92692-4064
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Lithuania says no talks on hosting US missile shield
by Staff WritersVilnius (AFP) July 2, 2008Lithuania on Wednesday dismissed claims that it is in talks on hosting a controversial US missile shield, after Washington warned it could turn to other countries if negotiations with Poland stall.
"There are as yet no talks under way," Defence Minister Juozas Olekas told reporters.
Olekas said the issue of anti-missile defence had been on Lithuania's agenda for a decade, notably as part of discussions within NATO, which the Balkan state joined in 2004.
"That information is shared and there are consultations, but no talks are taking place," he said.
The United States wants to base 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a linked radar facility in the Czech Republic to ward off potential attacks by so-called "rogue" states, notably Iran. Prague has already agreed to host the radar.
Lithuania has found itself in the spotlight after being sounded out by Washington as a possible alternative host for the interceptors because talks with Poland have been sluggish.
Warsaw has been holding firm to demands for a massive military aid package in return for hosting the US silos.
On Tuesday, US State Department spokesman Tom Casey said that Washington was "not at this point involved in any negotiation on alternate sites because the goal is to conclude an agreement with Poland."
But he cautioned that "if for some reason those arrangements don't work out, then I am sure we would look elsewhere."
Later, Casey pointed to "a resolution of this somewhere in the coming days."
His comments came as Lithuanian Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas visited Washington, although Casey stressed his talks with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the White House and Pentagon were not linked to the missile matter.
On Wednesday, Kirkilas also played down the idea that Lithuania could step in.
"Talks are currently under way with Poland, and are likely to come to a close this week, and we wish Poland all the best in the negotiations. This is our position at this time," Kirkilas told Lithuanian public radio.
Russia has blasted the US missile plan as a threat to its national security and has threatened to point missiles at Poland and the Czech Republic in retaliation.
Any US moves to talk to Lithuania would likely be even more sensitive for Moscow than Washington's negotiations with the Poles and Czechs, who joined NATO in 1999.
While Poland and the Czech Republic were communist satellite states, Lithuania was actually part of the Soviet Union from World War II until the collapse of the Soviet bloc in 1991.
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Lithuania_says_no_talks_on_hosting_US_missile_shield_999.html
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Lithuania Foots Bill for Sex Change
Lithuania has paid 40,000 euros ($63,000) for a citizen to undergo a full sex change operation because the government missed a July 1 deadline to adopt a domestic gender reassignment law.
The transsexual, born female in 1978, won a case last year against Lithuania in the European Court of Human Rights. The court ruled that the country had to enact a gender reassignment law, or pay 40,000 euros for the surgery to take place abroad.
A spokesperson from the country's justice ministry said that the whole sum had transferred, as no law was adopted.
Lithuania's government drafted a law to allow gender reassignment surgery and presented it to parliament in 2003, but the bill has not been passed.
Lack of political will
"There is a lack of political will to take action on the issue, and I do not know when there will be some," Elvyra Baltutyte, Lithuania's representative at the European Human Rights Court told Reuters news agency.
International human rights organizations have criticized Lithuania in the past for not respecting the rights of sexual minorities.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3456705,00.html
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Lithuanian truckers take up French tactics
Jul 03, 2008Staff and wire reports
VILNIUS - A convoy of trucks protesting rising fuel prices brought traffic near Siauliai, Lithuania’s fourth largest city, to a halt on June 27. Around 70 trucks were involved in the go-slow protest in Siauliai, according to Anatoly Yakimov, an official from the national truckers association. Lithuanian Radio reported that 30 automobiles joined the convoy, which ultimately stretched 3 kilometers.
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/20755/

Baltic Blog......Security & Intelligence Briefs, International, Baltic & Russia News July 1, 2008

The Mazeika Report
July 1, 2008

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Breaking news & commentary

Geopolitical Diary: Iran, Psywar and the Hersh Article
June 30, 2008 0200 GMT

U.S. President George W. Bush issued a highly classified presidential finding in late 2007 approving the initiation of covert operations focused on “undermining Iran’s nuclear ambitions and trying to undermine the government through regime change,” according to a July 7 article in The New Yorker by Seymour Hersh. Congressional leaders reportedly have been informed of the finding, and approved up to $400 million dollars to fund the operation.
This is, of course, explosive news. What is explosive is not that the United States is spending money on covert operations in Iran, but that someone has leaked a highly classified document to a reporter. The secret is now out; indeed, it was released before the article’s publication date. Hersh said only that the person who gave him the information was familiar with the document’s contents. This means his source is a person with extraordinarily high, code-named clearance — not to mention a criminal.
We would expect the Bush administration to be launching multiple investigations to find the leaker. If he is a Republican or a member of the administration or the intelligence community, then massive damage control is essential. If he is a Democrat who leaked (or an official of an agency deemed unfriendly to the administration), the incident represents a political opportunity. Everyone who had access to that document should be attached to a polygraph right now. Washington should have been in turmoil all weekend.
It wasn’t. Aside from some desultory comments, no one seems terribly upset that a major covert operation has been uncovered in the press and thereby crippled.
We are certain that a journalist of Hersh’s stature, writing for a respected publication like The New Yorker, did not make his story up. Since arrests are not pending, we can only conclude that the information was deliberately leaked to Hersh by the administration. This would not be the first time Hersh has been used as a channel by administration leakers. In 2006, he reported that the administration was carrying out covert operations in Iran for roughly the same end. Hersh is not friendly to the administration to say the least. A story by him carries great credibility because it appears to be an authentic scoop by a major journalist revealing things the administration doesn’t want revealed. Such a story therefore increases the sense of uncertainty in Iran substantially more than if a minor, pro-administration journalist published it. As we have pointed out in the case of the Mediterranean air exercises by Israel, the United States and Israel are intent on increasing the psychological pressure on Iran. This story fits into that pattern.
The only thing interesting in the story is the idea that until late 2007 there had been no presidential finding and the United States was not engaged in covert operations in Iran to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program and foment regime change. Given the administration’s stance on Iran, it is unthinkable that the intelligence community would not have been running operations in Iran for years focused on just these things. Stratfor has regularly reported on various bombings in the southwestern Arab regions of Iran as well as in Sistan-Balochistan, noting that these would be likely areas to foment unrest.
The latest finding could be an intensification in operations, but the authorization to spend up to $400 million to mess with the Iranians is really not all that much money — especially since that is the cap, and the time frame for expenditures isn’t authorized. But as Hersh made clear in 2006, operations already were under way, meaning a finding had to have been in place.
With all due respect to Mr. Hersh and The New Yorker, this is a report on the obvious. The United States regards Iran as a major target for covert operations, urgently wants to know everything it can about Iran’s nuclear facilities and would love to overthrow the Iranian government. A few hundred million, even on a long shot, is the least the United States would throw at this. As for a finding in late 2007, we do not know where the bureaucratic process is right now, but there have been presidential findings on covert operations in Iran for almost thirty years. Still, the details the administration has decided to make available to The New Yorker via Hersh should make worthwhile reading.
The important point is that unless there has been a massive breach of security, the administration has again acted to increase tensions with Iran — and this just a week after floating the idea of increased diplomatic ties with Iran and about ten days since leaking the report on the Israeli exercises. Since this article has been in preparation for weeks or months, and its publication date has not been under administration control, it remains unclear where in the sequence this leak was intended. But psychological warfare with Iran seems the order of the day, and this article is clearly part of it.
Our read of course might be wrong. Grand juries might be convening as we write and the FBI could be ranging all over D.C. taking statements from everyone with access to covert U.S. plans in Iran. But until that happens, we look at this as another attempt to make the Iranians feel insecure.
http://www.stratfor.com/
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Geopolitical Diary: Pressure on the Global System and the Saudi Release Valve
July 1, 2008 0145 GMT
The Europeans have reported that inflation has risen to 4 percent on an annualized basis. In historical terms (think the 1970s), this isn’t much. It is, however, the largest increase since the creation of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has a different mandate that the U.S. Federal Reserve System. The Fed is charged with managing the country’s economic well-being across a broad spectrum, including controlling inflation and facilitating growth. It can use its judgment as to what it should focus on. The ECB, by contrast, has a single mandate: controlling inflation. That may change at some point, but right now, that mandate applies — and that means that the ECB will fight inflation regardless of the consequence. The general consensus is thus that the ECB will raise interest rates.
That may help control inflation, but it also will strengthen the euro and weaken the dollar as money flows into European banks. As the dollar weakens, the price of commodities — particularly oil — will continue to rise. A stronger euro may mitigate some of the effects of that rise. But as the price of oil rises, so will Europe’s and the rest of the world’s cost of living. As the Fed pursues a policy of maintaining liquidity to avoid a recession, the ECB will go in the opposite direction. The result is a dangerous cycle.
The real issue isn’t Fed or ECB policy or synchronizing them. That isn’t going to happen. The real issue is whether anyone is going to intervene in this cycle before massive imbalances in the system move the global economy into massive recession as the Bank of International Settlements warned Monday. There are so many moving pieces that it is difficult to conceive of any particular act making a difference, save for one actor and one action. That would be Saudi Arabia indicating a commitment to increase oil production dramatically. That announcement would shift the momentum of oil prices and begin to release some of the pressure on the global system.
On the surface, it might appear the Saudis would want the highest price possible. But in reality they benefit more from having the highest sustainable price over the long run. A massive global recession is going to cut demand for oil. Furthermore, the 1970s taught that extremely high oil prices generate increased oil exploration and production. It took years to bring this oil online, but when it finally did come online in the 1980s and 1990s, the Saudis fell victim to excruciatingly low prices. The bust lasted longer than the boom.
The Saudis remember that well. They are in the game for the long haul — or at least as long as their oil lasts — because they have no other game to play. They love high oil prices, but it is inimical to their interests to have oil prices so high that it undermines demand while energizing investment in competitive supplies and technologies. If the Saudis learned anything from the last cycle, it is that they shouldn’t push things too hard.
We focus on the Saudis because no other single actor has the potential for unilateral action that might lower oil prices, relieving the price pressure in Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen and hopefully — but by no means certainly —stabilizing the international economic system. We were not impressed by the subprime crisis alone, but the subprime crisis coupled with extreme commodity prices is another matter.
The Saudi oil conference that ended June 22 had no effect, and the Saudis didn’t expect it to. It was a gesture designed to placate politicians around the world. As oil moves toward $150 a barrel, the system is creaking under the strain. If it cracks, the Saudis will not be the winners in the long run. The Americans and Europeans are not going to manage the crisis and it is not clear that even the Saudis can. But right now, it is Riyadh’s move. They are not particularly sensitive to outside pressure, but they do remember the mistakes they made in the 1970s. If the Saudis make no move, then the Bank of International Settlement may turn out to be right in its warnings.
http://www.stratfor.com/
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Turkey: 24 Arrested For Suspected Coup Connections
July 1, 2008 1405 GMT
Turkish police have arrested 24 people on suspicion of having connections to coup plotters, Bloomberg reported July 1, citing a spokesman for the Ankara police. Retired generals Hursit Tolon and Sener Eruygur, Ankara Chamber of Commerce chief Sinan Aygun and Mustafa Balbay, Ankara bureau chief for the Cumhuriyet newspaper, were among those arrested. Cumhuriyet writers have accused Turkey’s government of undermining the country’s secular rules. Eruygur, who was detained July 1, leads pro-secular lobby group the Ataturk Thought Association.
http://www.stratfor.com/

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The Homegrown Young Radicals Of Next-Gen Jihad
By Marc SagemanSunday, June 8, 2008; B01
We are fighting the wrong foe. Over the past six years, the nature of the international Islamist terrorist threat to the West has changed dramatically, but Western governments are still fighting the last war -- set up to fight an old al-Qaeda that is now largely contained. Unless we understand this sea change, we will not be able to ward off the new menace.
The version of al-Qaeda that Osama bin Laden founded is a fading force. After a week in which five detainees who allegedly planned the Sept. 11, 2001, atrocities were arraigned before a U.S. military tribunal at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, it's worth remembering that the terrorists behind 9/11 were mostly young, well-educated middle-class expatriates from Muslim countries who had become radicalized abroad, especially in the West. Such key 9/11 plotters as Mohamed Atta, Ramzi Binalshibh, Ziad Jarrah and Marwan al-Shehhi met and became radicalized as students in Hamburg, then went to Afghanistan looking for al-Qaeda. But over the past six years, most of the professional terrorists who fit this profile have been eliminated during the U.S.-led manhunt for "high-value targets." The few that remain are huddled in the Afghan-Pakistani border area, struggling to extend their reach beyond Pakistan.
That old guard is still dangerous and still plotting spectacular attacks. But it is the new wave that more urgently requires our attention. This cohort is composed of homegrown young wannabes who dream of glory and adventure, who yearn to belong to a heroic vanguard and to root their lives in a greater sense of meaning. Inspired by tales of past heroism, they hope to emulate their predecessors, even though, for the most part, they can no longer link up with al-Qaeda Central in the Pakistani badlands. Their potential numbers are so great that they must now be seen as the main terrorist threat to the West.
This threat is not well understood by U.S. policymakers. After 9/11, I realized that spectacular instances of collective violence such as terrorism and the Holocaust tend to be the product of small-group dynamics, not individual action. (As a former CIA case officer who ran programs in Afghanistan in the 1980s, I learned how hard it was to motivate groups to perform field operations.) I began putting together graphs and charts to see how friendships and kinship groups had shaped al-Qaeda's networks. I was able to recognize these concepts precisely because of my isolation from the U.S. government, which was focusing on old, top-down, command-and-control theories. And I worry again today that those charged with protecting us are not being imaginative or rigorous enough to understand the next generation of jihadists.
Unlike their pre-9/11 predecessors, today's would-be terrorists are usually the poorly educated teenage children of unskilled and secular Muslim immigrants. They have been born, raised and radicalized in their host countries (unlike, say, Atta, an Egyptian who recoiled at modern Germany). This new generation's youth culture celebrates a sort of "jihadist cool."
Consider the "Hofstad Netwerk" in the Netherlands, which I believe is typical of this new wave. It consists mostly of young people who were born in Holland or immigrated to that country very early in life. They met around their neighborhoods, in Internet cafes or in online chat rooms, then self-radicalized through their admiration for the supposed Islamist heroes fighting the West. One man linked to this cohort, Mohammed Bouyeri, repeatedly shot the Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh in 2004 on an Amsterdam street. Other members of this informal network reportedly planned to murder prominent Dutch politicians and bomb the Dutch parliament, a nuclear power plant and Amsterdam's international airport.
Or consider another network that sprang up in placid surroundings: the group of second-generation immigrant men and youths in the Toronto suburbs who Canadian authorities allege plotted to set off truck bombs in Toronto, bomb the Canadian Parliament and kill Prime Minister Stephen Harper. They reportedly spent time praising their terrorist heroes on the Internet and living out mujaheddin fantasies by playing paintball games in rural Ontario.
What makes next-gen terrorists tick? How did these ordinary kids come to be so attracted to political violence? The process of radicalization consists of four prongs, which need not occur in sequence. Here's the recipe: having a sense of moral outrage; seeing this anger as part of a "war on Islam"; believing that this view is consistent with one's everyday grievances; and mobilizing through networks.
Many Muslims feel a powerful sense of moral outrage at the treatment of their coreligionists, be it the sight of U.S. troops killing Muslims in Iraq or the aftermath of police harassment of local mosques. To lead to political violence, a next-generation jihadist must come to believe one simple sound bite: that there is a "war against Islam."
Unlike their fanatical predecessors in the old al-Qaeda, the new terrorists are not particularly religious. The defendants in the Hofstad trials, the March 2004 Madrid bombing trial, the Toronto case and the many trials in Britain are not intellectuals, let alone Islamic scholars. Many became religious only a few months before their arrests, and some are not religious at all. The new generation is not likely to be swayed by abstract arguments. Young jihadist wannabes do not go to Iraq to have theological debates; they go there to blow themselves up.
The problem has been worse in Europe than in the United States. In the land of the American dream and the melting pot, a broader, more inclusive view of American-ness undermines the jihadist insistence that the U.S. government is at war with its Muslim citizens. Notwithstanding some ugly jeering by nativist bigots and some clumsy profiling by law enforcement, ordinary Muslim Americans simply do not feel some "war on Islam" in their daily experiences.
But things are far less cheerful in Europe. The children of unskilled Muslim immigrants there face discrimination across the continent, resulting in striking unemployment rates. Many non-Muslim Europeans resent having to compete with Muslim immigrants for low-level jobs and worry that poor immigrant suburbs mean higher crime rates. Anti-immigrant sentiment, which propelled far-right parties to win around 20 percent of the vote in contests in France, Austria and Switzerland in recent years, only reinforces the message of rejection -- and produces grist for the terrorists' mill.
There are many angry young Muslims in the world, of course. What transforms a tiny number of them into terrorists is mobilization by networks. Until a few years ago, these networks were made up of face-to-face groups: local gangs of young immigrants such as the Hofstad group or expatriate students such as the Hamburg cell that planned 9/11. These cliques of friends became radicalized together. The group acted as an echo chamber -- amplifying grievances, intensifying members' bonds to one another, deepening their rejection of the values of the host society and making it easier to gradually separate themselves from it.
Over the past two or three years, face-to-face radicalization has started to be replaced by online radicalization. People's beliefs used to be changed in small cliques; now they are being altered in jihadist Internet forums. These forums have become virtual marketplaces for extremist ideas -- the "invisible hand" organizing terrorist activities worldwide. They are transforming the terrorist movement, attracting ever younger members and women, who can now join in the discussions.
The West has successfully contained the terrorists who perpetrated 9/11. But al-Qaeda has adapted from the bottom up, producing a network that's scattered, disconnected and decentralized. The new jihadist movement doesn't have an operational leader, but it is every bit as dangerous as the old one.
marcsageman@gmail.com
Marc Sageman is a sociologist, forensic psychiatrist and scholar in residence at the New York Police Department. He is the author of "Understanding Terror Networks" and "Leaderless Jihad."
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Russia: LUKoil's Cuba Plans Stymied in Venezuela
Stratfor Today » June 26, 2008 2014 GMT
DIMA KOROTAYEV/AFP/Getty Images
LUKoil President Vagit Alekperov
Summary
Russian oil firm LUKoil’s plans to purchase a refinery in Cuba are on hold because of the difficulty of investing in crude production in Venezuela. LUKoil founder and CEO Vagit Alekperov said June 26 that without a crude supply for the refinery, the planned purchase would not make sense. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez might change his mind on his country’s prohibitive attitude toward foreign investment in crude production; with various pressures on his regime, Chavez has recently shown the capacity to reconsider past decisions. Otherwise, he will have to count Alekperov among his enemies.
Analysis
Russian oil firm LUKoil’s plans to expand into Cuba have been put on hold. LUKoil wanted to buy a refinery in Cuba, supply it with crude oil produced in Venezuela and wait for the U.S. embargo on trade with Cuba eventually to end. This would give LUKoil the chance to squeeze into the highly competitive U.S. market.
However, this long-term project faces a major roadblock. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s burdensome and investment-unfriendly tax laws make investing in Venezuelan crude production extremely difficult for foreign companies. The U.S. firms have all left Venezuela, but even the companies that came in to fill that void — such as LUKoil — are not finding investment conditions favorable. This means that LUKoil’s plan to ship crude from Venezuela to Cuba for refinement is not going to be feasible under current conditions — not even at $130-per-barrel cost of oil. LUKoil founder and CEO Vagit Alekperov said June 26 that the firm “cannot afford to take the risk of viewing these [Venezuelan] projects as a source of supply of the Cuban refinery. And to buy a refinery without having crude supply logistics does not make sense.”
In other words, Venezuela’s current investment environment is leaving LUKoil with no way to control both the upstream and the downstream assets for petroleum product exports to the United States. Thus, Chavez might have just made a new enemy: Alekperov.
LUKoil, Russia’s most efficient privately owned energy company, has been on a serious campaign of global expansion for quite some time. It moved into the Northeastern U.S. gasoline-station market by acquiring Getty Petroleum in November 2000 and then bought Mobil-branded gasoline stations from ConocoPhillips in January 2004. In total, Lukoil has more than 2,000 U.S.-based gasoline stations, mostly in the Northeast. The idea behind the global expansion is to make a completely separate international arm of LUKoil that would be beyond the Kremlin’s reach. This is Alekperov’s way to insure that he could maintain a major presence in the global energy trade if Moscow nationalized his business in Russia.
A major part of Alekperov’s global strategy consists of expansion into the U.S. market. Considering that LUKoil already has a well-developed gasoline-station network in the Northeastern U.S., it also makes sense to acquire refining capacity nearby. Cuba is a great partner for LUKoil because of its location directly in the shipping path for potential crude production in Venezuela. LUKoil can also get into Cuba’s refining sector before others, because it has the advantage of Russo-Cuban political connections. The deal to buy a refinery possibly follows from reforms under Raul Castro’s leadership that have made Cuba more investor-friendly. Cuba has allowed partnerships with foreign companies as well as private acquisitions of some industrial enterprises. More specifically, one of Cuba’s economic goals is to become a refining hub.
But without Venezuelan crude production, LUKoil is left with few upstream options for crude in the Western Hemisphere. LUKoil could get oil from the spot market or even from Mexico, which is near enough to Cuba to make it work logistically, but in order to compete in the world’s richest and most competitive energy market — the United States — LUKoil needs to find other ways to lower costs, and it needs to be in charge of both upstream and downstream deals in order to make a long-term commitment to the Western Hemisphere. Aside from the Venezuelan crude, there simply are no other real alternatives.
There may still be a sliver of hope for LUKoil: Chavez could always change his mind, particularly ahead of his summit with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev in late July. On the agenda for that summit, announced on June 26 , is a proposed agreement on mutual protection of investments, which could signal that LUKoil has managed to lobby both Caracas and Moscow enough to get a break on the taxes it needs to pay. Chavez is also feeling a lot of domestic economic pressure that could make him rethink his policy toward foreign investors.
That said, if the investment situation does not improve, Chavez will have to deal with Alekperov as an enemy. A powerful Russian oligarch who has managed to steer a private energy company from Russia into a position of considerable global success despite the predations of Gazprom and Rosneft, Alekperov has many reasons to hope that Chavez is ousted. And Chavez should keep in mind that Russian oligarchs usually do not sit around hoping that things happen — they usually make sure things happen.
http://www.stratfor.com/




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Iraqi Christians are targets of cleansing, committee told
One in three a refugee, but Chaldo-Assyrians want to remain in country

Jennifer Green
The Ottawa Citizen
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Muslim militants are crucifying children to terrorize their Christian parents into fleeing Iraq, a parliamentary committee studying the persecution of religious minorities heard yesterday.
Since the war began in 2003, about 12 children, many as young as 10, have been kidnapped and killed, then nailed to makeshift crosses near their homes to terrify and torment their parents.
One infant was snatched, decapitated, burned and left on his mother's doorstep, the committee was told.
Filham Isaac, speaking for the Nineveh Advocacy Committee, told the human rights committee that Iraqi Christian churches were bombed, clergy murdered and unveiled Iraqi women raped or scarred with acid.
It's part of a systemic -- and very effective -- campaign to ethnically cleanse the area of any non-Muslims, he said. Chaldean and Assyrian Christians, known as Chaldo-Assyrians, were once the largest Christian minority in Iraq. They are also the oldest, descendants of ancient Mesopotamians who adopted Christianity in the first century.
The Chaldean Catholic Church, the Syrian Catholic Church, the Syriac Orthodox Church and the Church of the East are among the Christian churches in Iraq.
Today, about 300,000, or one in three, is a refugee, he said.
"It's at a crisis point," Mr. Isaac's colleague, Zaya Oshana, said later. "Christians will be completely annihilated."
Yet, the Chaldo-Assyrians do not want to leave their country en masse.
Instead, they are asking for help to settle the Nineveh Plains, in northwest Iraq, where they can have some independence and form their own state. The land is rich there, and there may be oil, too.
There is some support in the United States and Europe for this independent area, and international news reports indicate more than 700 police officers have begun training to protect the Christians in Iraq, but another 4,000 would be needed to fully secure the region and establish checkpoints on all highways and roads leading into the villages.
The committee also heard from the Ahmadiyya, an offshoot of Islam that began in India about 100 years ago. Ahmadi Muslims differ from mainstream Muslims on their views of Jesus, and on their interpretation of jihad, which they say must be non-violent.
However, they told the committee that they are increasingly persecuted in Pakistan, where they are told they are not Muslim at all and, therefore, their beliefs are an insult to Islam.
Nadeem Siddiq, general counsel for the Ahmadiyya Muslim Jama'at Community of Canada, told the committee the Pakistani government has been capitulating to mullahs who call them a "cancer" and forbid them from carrying out their prayers, or even mentioning Allah on their wedding invitations.
"They say by 'posing' as Muslims, we hurt real Muslims. The mullahs are still not happy. They want our properties confiscated and they want us charged."
Coptic Christians from Egypt had much the same story, with young girls regularly kidnapped, raped or forced to marry Muslim men. Despite these difficulties, there is no mechanism to claim refugee status in the beleaguered countries. Sam Fanous, of the Canadian Coptic Association, told the MPs that the Canadian Embassy in Cairo needed Canadian, not area Muslim, staff to evaluate refugee claims.
The committee passed a motion to research the issue further and to call for more testimony from minorities suffering religious persecution worldwide.
© The Ottawa Citizen 2008



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Russian films take a page from Soviet playbook
The Kremlin helps to produce movies and TV miniseries that promote its views.
By Mansur MirovalevAssociated PressJuly 1, 2008MOSCOW -- When Vladimir Putin visited the set of the latest movie by Oscar-winning filmmaker Nikita Mikhalkov, he sat in the director's chair while actors playing Soviet soldiers marched toward the front.Putin didn't direct the action -- he left that to his host. But the prime minister's presence at the $55-million "Burnt by the Sun 2," the most expensive film in Russia's post-Soviet history, was a potent symbol of his government's expanding role in the country's film industry.Soviet founder Vladimir Lenin called cinema "the most important of all arts," and film was regarded by the Communist leadership as one of its most powerful propaganda weapons. Legendary directors such as Sergei Eisenstein, who made "The Battleship Potemkin," and Andrei Tarkovsky, whose brooding classics can still astonish, won acclaim even as they bent to the will of the totalitarian state.Now the Russian government is trying to revive the Soviet film tradition, helping to produce movies and miniseries that push the Kremlin's political views, vilify its critics and glorify the military and intelligence services.Artistically, the results have been decidedly mixed.Outside of the work of Mikhalkov, whose international fame dates back to the 1960s and who won a foreign-language film Oscar for 1994's "Burnt by the Sun," few government-sponsored films have won either critical acclaim or box-office success."History repeats itself with a farce, so this new propaganda seems ridiculous compared to textbook Soviet examples," said Yuri Valkov, a historian of Russian culture.Throughout the 1990s, the Russian film industry was mostly limited to imitations of Hollywood blockbusters and attempts to preserve the old artistic traditions.In the new millennium, Russian filmmakers have found themselves in a business-oriented environment of investments and profits. But the government has taken a greater role in film projects and remains the country's largest film producer. Putin recently proposed a merger of three Soviet-era film studios into a mammoth, state-owned concern.Some in the film industry -- the largest in Europe alongside France -- welcome the influence of authorities over which movies get made and the political lessons they teach."Law enforcement agencies are part of our state, and the government has the right to propagate whatever it considers necessary," said producer Leonid Vereshchagin of 3T, Mikhalkov's own production company, which has released several highly patriotic films.But critics say government influence has stifled most critical and creative artists. Russian documentary filmmakers, for example, could probably never produce documentaries directly critical of the government, said Vyacheslav Shmyrov, chief editor of Kinoprotsess magazine."A Michael Moore is impossible in Russia," he said, referring to the American filmmaker whose documentary "Fahrenheit 9/11" was a scathing critique of the Bush administration.This year's most controversial Russian documentary, "The Destruction of the Empire: A Byzantine Lesson," was written by an Orthodox monk who argued that Western ideas and institutions would ruin Russia as they did Byzantium centuries earlier.Unlike in the Soviet era, there is no centrally directed state effort to use cinema for indoctrination. Instead, artists know that they can win state support for film projects that promote the views of those in power."There are attempts of artists, producers and film directors to profit from patriotic themes and get government funding for their projects," said political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky.Films critical of the government or at odds with the Kremlin's view of Russian history can face problems getting made, or gaining recognition after their release. The macabre 2007 film "Cargo 200," with its Orwellian vision of Soviet society, provoked a scandal at last year's Kinotavr film festival and was rated X for limited distribution.The result is a film like this year's "Alexander: The Battle on the Neva," which celebrates a 13th century prince who repels a Swedish invasion of his city, puts down a riot of Western-leaning nobles and vows fealty to the Mongol empire.The message could not be more clear: Russia needs a strong leader to defend it from a hostile West. The film was advertised as a prequel to Eisenstein's 1938 epic, "Alexander Nevsky," which was personally commissioned by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin to stir anti-German sentiment on the eve of World War II.Russian intelligence, police and military agencies have underwritten at least a dozen television series or films in recent years, spending tens of millions of dollars to polish their images.Last year, the Fund to Support Patriotic Films -- a nonprofit backed by the FSB, the main successor agency to the KGB -- produced "The Apocalypse Code," a $15-million James Bond knockoff.In the film, a seductively dressed female FSB spy blasts bad guys, outwits her rivals and saves the world from nuclear annihilation. The film flopped with critics and filmgoers. " 'The Code' is a raving of a drunken horse," said critic Victor Matezen.But failure didn't discourage the film's backers. Olesya Bykova, executive director of the fund, said it plans a feature film, television series and interactive online projects targeted at a younger audience.State-financed films have featured Kremlin foes, thinly disguised as fictional characters, as the bad guys. A character apparently modeled on the billionaire Boris Berezovsky plots terrorist attacks in the 2004 film "Personal Number." Berezovsky fled to London in 2001 after a falling out with Putin."The Apocalypse Code" and "Personal Number" were among the winners of the revived Soviet-era award for best works of art that "form a positive image of FSB officers."=========================================================================

Students studying abroad are not allowed to leave Belarus
12:59, — Politics
Belarusian activists who had been expelled from Belarusian universities on political reasons and who are studying in foreign universities now, are stopped on the border and told that they are prohibited to leave Belarus.
Names of the students are put on the so-called “black lists”. In this way military enlistment offices are trying to send unwanted oppositionists to the army service.
A young activist of the Belarusian Popular Front party Franak Vyachorka hasn’t been allowed to cross the Belarusian-Lithuanian border. It has happened at the border checkpoint Kamenny Loh. Franak hasn’t been informed about the reason of the ban to leave the territory of Belarus.
“I have been told that leaving Belarus territory is prohibited for me, that I was put on a black list recently. When I asked why I was put down from the bus, a frontier guard answered: “It’s your problem”. I know that it is connected with calling me up to the army, and my name was put on the list by workers of the military enlistment office of Savetski district [of Minsk],” Franak Vyachorka told to Radio Svaboda.
A day before a student of “Kalinouski Square” programme Zmitser Buyanau was put off a train when he crossed the border from Poland to Belarus. They told to the guy that he won’t be allowed to go back, as he had been put on the “black list” as well.
“When I crossed the Belarusian border, frontier guards put me of the train. They seized my passport, examined its pages and told that they won’t allow me to go back. When I asked why, they answered: “Go to police and you’ll learn”. I visited Belarus several times before that, and there hadn’t been any problems. I believe that it is a revenge to Belarusian guys for studying abroad,” Zmitser Buyanau told to Radio Svaboda.
Franak Vyachorka passed a regional medical commission. Doctors have operated his eyes. Franak has been told that now he is to receive a deferral from service for half a year.
Zmitser Buyanau is a student of Gdansk University. The military enlistment office has a certificate from the university and its Belarusian translation. The military enlistment office informed that the young man has a deferral for one year only, and he is to bring such certificates each year.
Franak and Zmitser are registered in the military enlistment office of Savetski district of Minsk. Alyaksandr Ivanouski, who is in charge of the call-up campaign, has told to Radio Svaboda why Franak Vyachorka is blacklisted.
“It is right he was stopped. He hasn’t passed a medical examination. He hasn’t been authorized by the regional commission. The deferral is illegal until it is not authorized. After authorizing it by a regional medical commission we give an official deferral,” the official said.
Mr Ivanouski keeps cases of the students studying abroad in a separate file. But the military enlistment office has questions only to the students who are studying thanks to international projects of assistance to the repressed students.
It should be noted that exacerbation of repressions against oppositional youth is taking place in the country at the same time when some European politicians are stating that the situation with human rights in Belarus is allegedly improving.

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Conspiracy theory: Did the Russian Mafia kill Ruslana Korshunova?

A beautiful, successful Russian model leaps out of a window and kills herself. Why?
Theories are now flooding the Internet about the "real" reason for Ruslana Korshunova's death. Some even claim that she was a victim of a Russian Mafia-controlled teenage-model flesh-peddling organization.Click here for more details.
And click here for the best crackpot theory so far. Or is it so crackpot? Anyone who saw Viggo Mortensen play a Russian gangster in in "Eastern Promises" might give this theory a second thought.
One wild theory is that "Ruslana's death might be related to the model wanting out desperately and not being allowed to do so by the Paris-New York-Moscow mafia that controls teenage models. Some reports have linked the economic giant Gazprom with creating a web of model management and discovery with a tightly controlled escort spinoff that sets up supermodels with corporative tycoons. Most of the girls being from Eastern Europe."
Even Geraldo Riviera is getting into the act (surprise), showing footage of the model's body on a stretcher.
What do you think? Are the police being too quick to call it a suicide? Will anyone bother to dig deeper?
Keep reading to see more runway modeling photos of Ruslana.





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Putin Submits Economic Plan to Party
Russian Prime Minister and leader of the United Russia Party Vladimir Putin met with legislators from his party on June 29 and told them that salaries paid from the federal budget will be raised 30 percent on December 1 of this year. The meeting was held in the Lesnye Dali resort outside Moscow, to which the lawmakers came in crowded buses. Before the meeting, the legislators discussed not the budget, but President of Tatarstan and United Russia member Mintimer Shaimiev’s recent proposal to repeal the law cancelling the election of governors. The legislators were against his idea.
The prime minister began his presentation with a summary of their activities and the unsuccessful fight against inflation. He also railed against “last century’s” Construction Norms and Rules, calling them archaic and accusing them of making construction more expensive, or even impossible. He urged the lawmakers to use their full range of capabilities to fight the rules. “It would be extremely counterproductive to hide your heads in the sand when another part [of the body] will still be hanging out,” the president observed. “When I am abroad,” the prime minister said, “I say that problems with inflation are imported to us from abroad. Yes, they had a mortgage credit crisis there, then the banks got involved… And there are growing prices for oil on world markets, and growing prices for gas… But there are domestic causes too. We consider it incorrect today to fight inflation by lowering the rate of economic growth! The head of the European Central Bank Mr. Trichet raises the refinancing rate and says, I understand that it impedes economic growth, but I consider combating inflation more important. That is for your information. We should have different opinions on this account.”
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Lithuanian parliament legalizes dual citizenship
30.06.2008, 19.04

VILNIUS, June 30 (Itar-Tass) -- The Lithuanian Seimas (parliament) on Monday voted for the amendments that legalized the institution of dual citizenship. This right can be used by people of Lithuanian origin and their descendants residing in European Union and NATO countries, as well as those who left Lithuania prior to the establishment of Soviet power or were deported.
“We are not a large country to discount those who left abroad for a long or a brief stay. Sooner or later they will return, and the door must be held open to them,” said deputy speaker Gintaras Steponavicius, setting out the stand of those who initiated the amendments.
Citizenship gives rights to a person and also imposes duties, and we grant the privilege to those who left the country in pursuit of gain, say those who criticize the amendments.
Dual citizenship has been outlawed in Lithuania so far. The president could grant citizenship to a person as an exception by his decree for special services to the country. In accordance with the amendments adopted on Monday, the president retains such an opportunity.
Itar Tass

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Cyber Attack on Lithuanian Web Sites

July 1, 2008 Some 300 Web sites in the Baltic nation of Lithuania were targeted in a cyber assault reminiscent of attacks on computer networks in Estonia in 2007, local media reported on Monday.
The sites' regular content was blocked out by a red background with the communist hammer and sickle symbol.
"You, scum, have gone crazy," a message in Russian posted by hackers on Lithuanian Web sites read, according to Russian news sources.
The attacks shut down the web sites of the national ethics body, the securities and exchange commission, the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party and local municipalities over the weekend. By Monday afternoon, most of sites were showing their regular content.
"One could call it a cyber attack against Lithuania," the Baltic nation's defense minister Juozas Olekas told journalists.
It was unclear where the attacks originated as hackers used proxy servers in Germany and Asia, allowing them to disguise their real physical location.
Lithuanian experts linked the attacks to the adoption of a law, banning the public display of the Soviet-era symbols during public demonstrations, a move which was criticized in Russia.
Bilateral relations between the two countries are poor.
Last week, Estonian television reported of appeals on Russian Internet forums, calling for hackers to launch a large-scale attack on the web sites of Latvian, Lithuanian, Estonian, and Ukrainian government institutions.
Estonia was hit by massive cyber attacks last year after authorities there decided to move a Red Army memorial from the center of the capital Tallinn to a military cemetery.
This prompted NATO to create a cyber defense center in the Estonian capital.
Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa)



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'Communist' Hackers Target Entire Nation of Lithuania
Monday , June 30, 2008
Unidentified hackers broke into several hundred Lithuanian Web sites over the weekend, plastering them with communist symbols, government officials said Monday.
The hackers posted Soviet symbols — the hammer and sickle, as well as the five-pointed star — and scathing messages with profanities on Web sites based in the ex-Soviet nation, officials said.
"More than 300 private and official sites were attacked from so-called proxy servers located in territories east of Lithuania," said Sigitas Jurkevicius, a computer specialist at Lithuania's communications authority.
• Click here to visit FOXNews.com's Cybersecurity Center.
The hackers hit Web sites from both the government and private sector, including the Baltic state's securities commission and ruling Social Democratic Party. Others included a car dealership and a grocery chain.
Many believe the attacks were a backlash against legislation approved by lawmakers two weeks ago banning the public display of Soviet and communist symbols. President Valdas Adamkus signed the law Friday.
Lithuania and the other two Baltic countries, Estonian and Latvia, gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
The law prohibits the public display of the Soviet flag, military uniforms and the five-pointed Soviet star, as well as the playing of the Soviet national anthem.
It has drawn strong condemnation from Moscow, but Lithuanian officials stopped short of pinning blame on Russian hackers.
"Lithuania has experienced a serious attack on the Internet resources. I cannot rule out there is a direct link with our recent legislation," Defense Minister Juozas Olekas told reporters.
The hacking incident was also reminiscent of a series of cyberattacks on Estonian Web sites last year after the neighboring Baltic state angered Russia by moving a Soviet war monument and nearby war grave.
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Cyber attack on Lithuanian websites
Vilnius - Some 300 websites in the Baltic nation of Lithuania were targetted in a cyber assault reminiscent of attacks on computer networks in Estonia in 2007, local media reported on Monday. The sites' regular content was blocked out by a red background with the communist hammer and sickle symbol.
"You, scum, have gone crazy," a message in Russian posted by hackers on Lithuanian websites read, according to Russian news sources.
The attacks shut down the websites of the national ethics body, the securities and exchange commission, the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party and local municipalities over the weekend. By Monday afternoon, most of sites were showing their regular content.
"One could call it a cyber attack against Lithuania," the Baltic nation's defence minister Juozas Olekas told journalists.
It was unclear where the attacks originated as hackers used proxy servers in Germany and Asia, allowing them to disguise their real physical location.
Lithuanian experts linked the attacks to the adoption of a law, banning the public display of the Soviet-era symbols during public demonstrations, a move which was criticized in Russia.
Bilateral relations between the two countries are poor.
Last week, Estonian television reported of appeals on Russian internet forums, calling for hackers to launch a large-scale attack on the websites of Latvian, Lithuanian, Estonian, and Ukrainian government institutions.
Estonia was hit by massive cyber attacks last year after authorities there decided to move a Red Army memorial from the centre of the capital Tallinn to a military cemetery.
This prompted NATO to create a cyber defence centre in the Estonian capital.
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/215959,cyber-attack-on-lithuanian-websites.html

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Ex-Soviet Lithuania hit by cyber attack
Story Highlights
Officials: Hackers posted Soviet symbols, scathing messages on Web sites
The hackers hit Web sites from both the government and private sector
Many believe attacks are backlash against ban on public display of Soviet symbols
Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991

Lithuanian law prohibits the public display of the Soviet flag, military uniforms and the five-pointed Soviet star.

VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) -- Unidentified hackers broke into several hundred Lithuanian Web sites over the weekend, plastering them with communist symbols, government officials said Monday.
The hackers posted Soviet symbols -- the hammer and sickle, as well as the five-pointed star -- and scathing messages with profanities on Web sites based in the ex-Soviet nation, officials said.
"More than 300 private and official sites were attacked from so-called proxy servers located in territories east of Lithuania," said Sigitas Jurkevicius, a computer specialist at Lithuania's communications authority.
The hackers hit Web sites from both the government and private sector, including the Baltic state's securities commission and ruling Social Democratic Party. Others included a car dealership and a grocery chain.
Many believe the attacks were a backlash against legislation approved by lawmakers two weeks ago banning the public display of Soviet and communist symbols. President Valdas Adamkus signed the law Friday.
Lithuania and the other two Baltic countries, Estonia and Latvia, gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
The law prohibits the public display of the Soviet flag, military uniforms and the five-pointed Soviet star, as well as the playing of the Soviet national anthem.
It has drawn strong condemnation from Moscow, but Lithuanian officials stopped short of pinning blame on Russian hackers.
"Lithuania has experienced a serious attack on the Internet resources. I cannot rule out there is a direct link with our recent legislation," Defense Minister Juozas Olekas told reporters.
The hacking incident was also reminiscent of a series of cyberattacks on Estonian Web sites after the neighboring Baltic state angered Russia by moving a Soviet war monument and nearby war grave.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Links referenced within this article Lithuaniahttp://topics.edition.cnn.com/topics/LithuaniaRussiahttp://topics.edition.cnn.com/topics/RussiaAssociated Presshttp://edition.cnn.com/interactive_legal.html#APLithuaniahttp://topics.edition.cnn.com/topics/LithuaniaRussiahttp://topics.edition.cnn.com/topics/RussiaInternethttp://topics.edition.cnn.com/topics/Internet

Find this article at: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/06/30/lithuania.hackers.ap/index.html

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Hackers plaster Soviet symbols on hundreds of Web sites in ex-Soviet Lithuania
By LIUDAS DAPKUS Associated Press Writer

VILNIUS, Lithuania
Unidentified hackers broke into several hundred Lithuanian Web sites over the weekend, plastering them with communist symbols, government officials said Monday.
The hackers posted Soviet symbols - the hammer and sickle, as well as the five-pointed star - and scathing messages with profanities on Web sites based in the ex-Soviet nation, officials said.
"More than 300 private and official sites were attacked from so-called proxy servers located in territories east of Lithuania," said Sigitas Jurkevicius, a computer specialist at Lithuania's communications authority.
The hackers hit Web sites from both the government and private sector, including the Baltic state's securities commission and ruling Social Democratic Party. Others included a car dealership and a grocery chain.
Many believe the attacks were a backlash against legislation approved by lawmakers two weeks ago banning the public display of Soviet and communist symbols. President Valdas Adamkus signed the law Friday.
Lithuania and the other two Baltic countries, Estonian and Latvia, gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
The law prohibits the public display of the Soviet flag, military uniforms and the five-pointed Soviet star, as well as the playing of the Soviet national anthem.
It has drawn strong condemnation from Moscow, but Lithuanian officials stopped short of pinning blame on Russian hackers.
"Lithuania has experienced a serious attack on the Internet resources. I cannot rule out there is a direct link with our recent legislation," Defense Minister Juozas Olekas told reporters.
The hacking incident was also reminiscent of a series of cyberattacks on Estonian Web sites after the neighboring Baltic state angered Russia by moving a Soviet war monument and nearby war grave.
http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D91KGLN01
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TV3 Lithuania CEO steps down The CEO of Viasat Broadcasting-owned TV3 in Lithuania has quit after eight years in the job to move to another company.
Ramunas Saucikovas will leave TV3 next month and current chief operating officer Laura Blazeviciute will take over as acting CEO until a permanent replacement is found.Saucikovas hasn't revealed where he is headed but said in a statement that he had been presented with "a unique opportunity in an ambitious business development."He added: "Such opportunities – to make radical changes in life – are rare and I feel I need to pursue this one."Blazeviciute has worked for Viasat parent Modern Times Group (MTG) since 2001 and has been COO of TV3 for the past year. Prior to that, she was channel manager at Tango-TV in Lithuania and marketing manager for Viasat3 in Hungary and for TV3 in Latvia.Kaspars Ozolins, CEO of Viasat Baltics, said Ramunas and his team had kept TV3 "the number one TV station in Lithuania, and one of MTG's most successful businesses in Eastern Europe," adding that he looked forward to continuing to work with Blazeviciute in her new role.http://www.c21media.net/news/detail.asp?area=1&article=42751#printerJonathan Webdale 30 Jun 2008
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German Contingent Take Over Baltic Air- Policing Mission
On June 30 NATO Baltic Air-policing mission will be transferred from Polish Air Force soldiers to a German contingent. The ceremony will take place at the Lithuanian Air Force Aviation Base in Siauliai. This is the second time German forces deploy soldiers for the Baltic Air-policing mission. They patrolled Baltic airspace from June to September in 2005 for the first time. Rotation ceremony will be attended by the Vice Minster of National Defence Antanas Valys, Deputy Ambassador of Poland for Lithuania Ewa Anna Figel, Deputy Ambassador of Germany for Lithuania Dirk Roland Haupt, representatives of German, Polish, Estonian, and Latvian air forces, leadership of Lithuanian Air Force and Aviation Base, representatives of Siauliai city and district, and other guests. For the upcoming three months Baltic airspace will be guarded by about 120 German soldiers and four fighters F-4F “Phantom”.
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NKU Faculty and Students Leave for Lithuania to Partner with Leading 3-D Animators
HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, Ky. --(Business Wire)-- A new work-study program gives Northern Kentucky University (NKU) students a seat at the table with some of the world's leading virtual effects artists. The program is designed to extend the study and application of computer-generated images typically seen in major motion pictures, commercials, fine art and engineering projects. NKU Media Informatics faculty and students will travel to the corporate offices of CinciMedia in Vilnius, Lithuania, to collaborate with professionals serving the company's growing global client roster. CinciMedia connected with NKU from its North American base in Cincinnati, Ohio. Assistant Professor Anthony Deiter will accompany students to Vilnius and work with them on a series of animation projects. "Our collaboration with CinciMedia brings a real-life, real-time dimension to the NKU Media Informatics program," he said. "In addition to working with top talent, we're introducing the international component, which is common to completing extensive 3-D animation and modeling programming, to the learning experience."

Nicholas Fabisiak, a student participating in the five-week program, was quick to recognize the benefits. "I believe the NKU-CinciMedia collaboration has put me on the fast track to an extremely exciting career," he said. "In less than a year since beginning my studies, I've completed cutting-edge projects and will now be teaming with professionals who are part of a progressive and international organization." "As a member of the NKU College of Informatics Dean's Advisory Board, I looked forward to demonstrating how CinciMedia remains committed to NKU and to the educational community," said CinciMedia CEO Karl Treier. He said programs like this will help the company develop talent from the Greater Cincinnati region while growing business. For photos, videos, samples of Fabisiak's 3-D animation, work from other students and information about the Media Informatics program, see http://min.nku.edu/. Northern Kentucky University is located seven miles from Cincinnati and enrolls nearly 15,000 students. See www.nku.edu. NKU is a national model in civic engagement and regional stewardship.
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-nku-faculty-students-leave-lithuania-partner-with-leading-/2008/06/30/3523504.htm
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BISHOP BANNED: Parishioners don't want him at St. Casimir's last Mass

By MARIA PAPADOPOULOSThu Jun 26, 2008, 07:07 AM EDTSt. Casimir Catholic Church will have its final Mass on Sunday, but parishioners won’t allow the regional bishop and other clergy to attend.Parishioners voted recently to not allow Bishop John A. Dooher, the Rev. Allan Butler, administrator for St. Casimir Church, and the Rev. Francis J. Clougherty, regional vicar and pastor of Our Lady of Lourdes Church, to attend the final Mass at the church, said the church’s cantor, Maryte Bizinkauskas.“We ask that they don’t show up because we just don’t want them there,” Bizinkauskas said Wednesday.“They’re the manufacturers of this closing,” she said. “They were instrumental in the closing, and we as a parish community feel strongly that we don’t want them there.”Dooher, who was attending a meeting in Detroit, could not be reached for comment Wednesday.Butler could not be reached for comment Wednesday.Clougherty, pastor at Our Lady of Lourdes Church in Brockton, did not return a call for comment Wednesday.In an e-mail to The Enterprise, Terrence C. Donilon, spokesman for the Archdiocese of Boston, said he hopes parishioners and the archdiocese can work together.“We have great respect for the parishioners of St. Casimir and we fully understand how they are feeling at this time,” Donilon said. “Our hope and prayer is that in the course of the days and weeks ahead we can continue to work together as they transition from St. Casimir and that together we can work for the common good of the church.”The Archdiocese of Boston issued a decree of suppression on Tuesday for St. Casimir Catholic Church, Donilon said.The decree was mailed to all registered parishioners of St. Casimir Wednesday, he said.“Out of respect for them it wouldn’t be appropriate for me to comment until they have received (the decree),” Donilon said.Parishioners will have until July 14 to respond to Cardinal Sean O’Malley, Donilon said.“We’re definitely going to appeal,” said Bizinkauskas, but “appealing does not mean (Archdiocesan officials) don’t change the locks.”The appeal process, first to the archdiocese, and if denied at that level, then to Rome, could take years.Bizinkauskas said other clergy have been invited to attend the final church Mass on Sunday.The Rev. John P. Prusaitis, who served as pastor of St. Casimir from 1994 to 2006, and the Rev. Stephan Zukas, pastor of St. Peter Lithuanian Church in South Boston, have been invited, she said.Birute Silvia, a lifelong parishioner, said she was not among parishioners who voted June 18 to ban the bishop and other clergy from Sunday’s Mass, but she “fully” understands the reasoning of that vote.“With all due respect to their position in the church and as human beings, they did not show a great deal of empathy (in closing the church),” Silvia, 69, said of Archdiocesan officials. “So where’s the milk of human kindness?”The church on Sawtell Avenue, built by Lithuanian immigrants, celebrated its 110th anniversary earlier this month.Originally named St. Rocco, the church boasts a rich history of faith and culture and is the founding home of the national Knights of Lithuania.Outside, on the lawn at St. Casimir, signs of the opposition to the closure can be seen.Parishioners have erected several wooden crosses on the church’s “Hill of Crosses,” which emulates a pilgrimage site in Lithuania.“We’re grieving over the loss of our parish. There’s going to be crying, sobbing, everywhere,” Bizinkauskas said of the final Mass on Sunday.Maria Papadopoulos can be reached at mpapadopoulos@enterprisenews.com. ==================================================================

2008-07-01

LITHUANIAN MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS SOCIALIZED WITH LITHUANIAN AMERICANS IN CHICAGO AND TOOK PART IN THE EVENTS OF THE ‘LITHUANIAN DAYS’

On 29 June, during the working visit to Chicago, Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Petras Vaitiekūnas met with Lithuanians, who are living in Chicago and its suburbs, heads of Lithuanian organisations, representatives of the Lithuanian press in the U.S.A., took part in the ‘Lithuanian days’ in the city of Summit and visited the Lithuanian World Center in Lemont.
Lithuanians attended the meeting with Minister P. Vaitiekūnas at the Lithuanian World Centre in great numbers. They took interest in the amendments to the Law on Citizenship, lack of qualified workers and a possibility to return to Lithuania.
Participants of the meeting also were interested in the perspectives of electronic voting, important issues of foreign policy, especially relations with Russia. Members of the Lithuanian community in the U.S.A. inquired about foreign investment in Lithuania.
The meeting with the Minister was attended by journalists from the biggest Lithuanian daily newspapers and weeklies in the U.S.A., such as ‘Draugas’ (‘The Friend’), ‘Vakarai’ (‘West’), ‘Amerikos lietuvis’(‘Lithuanian American’), and online dailies: ‘Vakarai.us’ (‘West’), and ‘Bičiulystė’ (‘Friendship’). Besides the aforementioned topics, media representatives were interested in the activities of the Commission of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania (Parliament) and the Lithuanian World Community, the efficiency of activity of institutions concerned with issues of the Lithuanian emigration and issues of the preservation of the unity of the Baltic States.
In the city of Summit, Minister P.Vaitiekūnas met with Mayor Joseph Strzelczyk. As a sign of respect, the Mayor of Summit presented Minister P.Vaitiekūnas with a symbolic key to the city.
During the ‘Lithuanian days’ that lasted for two days, the U.S. Lithuanians and Americans of various generations had an opportunity to enjoy some entertainment, sports and games, taste Lithuanian national dishes, listen to the music, enter various contests and win a draw.
In Chicago, Minister P.Vaitiekūnas placed flowers on the monument for S.Darius and S.Girėnas. On 13 July, the 75th anniversary of the flight over the Atlantic Ocean will be celebrated here. The monument for the Lithuanian pilots was erected in 1935, in Marquette Park. In 1999, the monument was renovated at the initiative of the Lithuanian - American Engineers and Architects Association.
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